ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Nacional vs Academico Viseu

Nacional Home · Elo 1,433
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Academico Viseu Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nacional win
Nacional winPick
44.2%
Draw
25.6%
Academico Viseu win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Nacional history61 matches
Academico Viseu history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nacional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Academico Viseu are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,433. On rating alone Academico Viseu would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Academico Viseu score more

    1.11 goals a game over 61 matches for Nacional, against 1.44 over 61 for Academico Viseu.

  • Academico Viseu concede fewer

    Nacional concede 1.48 a game, Academico Viseu 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Nacional matches, against 48% for Academico Viseu. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nacional
Academico Viseu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.2
ELO
1547.9
61
ELO · Matches
61
1433.2
Current Team ELO
1547.9
1547.9
Current Opponent ELO
1433.2
-114.8
Current ELO Difference
114.8
0.34
Expected score
0.66
61
History Matches
61
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
45.96
Overperformance
52.87
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
61
0.97
PPG
1.48
24.6%
Win rate
37.7%
23.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
52.5%
Loss rate
27.9%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.10
PPG
1.19
30.0%
Win rate
25.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
41.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
32.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.44
65.6%
Scoring rate
73.8%
49.2%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.42
73.3%
Scoring rate
74.2%
56.7%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
61
1.11
Goals Mean
1.44
1.06
Goals Std
1.18
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
13.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.05
80.3%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.26
76.7%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
61
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.05
Conceded Std
0.98
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
61
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.39
7.05
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
60
12
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.70
23
Trailing Matches
14
17.4%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.73
Portability PPG Range
1.67
65.81
Portability Score
46.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-114.8
PPG-0.51
GF-0.33
GA0.43
PPG0.67
PPG-0.09
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score6.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.93
Portability Score19.30
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-114.8
Current Opponent ELO114.8
Current ELO Difference-229.5
Expected score-0.32
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nacional

L
Arouca1–0Nacional1 Nov · away
Pick: Arouca 49% · hit
W
Nacional1–0SC Braga25 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga 40% · missed
L
Sanjoanense1–0Nacional17 Oct · away
Pick: Nacional 38% · missed
L
Nacional2–3Estrela30 Aug · home
Pick: Nacional 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Academico Viseu

W
Academico Viseu2–1Rio Ave1 Nov · home
Pick: Academico Viseu 45% · hit
L
FC Porto1–0Academico Viseu28 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 53% · hit
W
Sporting CP1–2Academico Viseu25 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP 67% · missed
L
Fátima1–0Academico Viseu18 Oct · away
Pick: Academico Viseu 42% · missed
L
Academico Viseu0–3FC Porto29 Aug · home
Pick: FC Porto 54% · hit

About this match

Nacional and Academico Viseu meet in Primeira Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nacional win 44.2%, draw 25.6%, Academico Viseu win 30.2%. The pick is Nacional win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.