ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

SSV Ulm 1846 vs VfR Mannheim

SSV Ulm 1846 Home · Elo 1,416
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
VfR Mannheim Away · Elo 1,598
Donaustadion, Ulm Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfR Mannheim win
SSV Ulm 1846 win
35.5%
Draw
20.1%
VfR Mannheim winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

SSV Ulm 1846 history70 matches
VfR Mannheim history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why VfR Mannheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfR Mannheim are rated 182 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,416. On rating alone VfR Mannheim would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • VfR Mannheim score far more

    1.33 goals a game over 70 matches for SSV Ulm 1846, against 2.24 over 63 for VfR Mannheim.

  • VfR Mannheim concede fewer

    SSV Ulm 1846 concede 1.91 a game, VfR Mannheim 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of SSV Ulm 1846 matches, against 63% for VfR Mannheim. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SSV Ulm 1846
VfR Mannheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.1
ELO
1597.8
70
ELO · Matches
63
1416.1
Current Team ELO
1597.8
1597.8
Current Opponent ELO
1416.1
-181.7
Current ELO Difference
181.7
0.26
Expected score
0.74
70
History Matches
63
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.08
45.99
Overperformance
56.22
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
2.10
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
63
0.96
PPG
1.86
25.7%
Win rate
54.0%
18.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
55.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
29
1.08
PPG
1.93
32.4%
Win rate
58.6%
10.8%
Draw rate
17.2%
56.8%
Loss rate
24.1%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
37
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.24
78.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
68.6%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.35
Goals for per game
2.17
73.0%
Scoring rate
86.2%
62.2%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
63
1.33
Goals Mean
2.24
1.14
Goals Std
1.75
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
32.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
38.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
2.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.30
85.7%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.28
86.5%
Conceding rate
72.4%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
63
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.43
Conceded Std
1.28
52.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.5%
31.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
63
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.17
10.09
Stability score
8.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
27
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.85
22
Trailing Matches
12
9.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.68
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.53
53.11
Portability Score
42.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-181.7
PPG-0.90
GF-0.91
GA0.61
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.85
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.91
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate17.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score1.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.41
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score10.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-181.7
Current Opponent ELO181.7
Current ELO Difference-363.4
Expected score-0.48
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SSV Ulm 1846

D
Freiburg II1–1SSV Ulm 184631 Oct · away
Pick: Freiburg II 56% · missed
D
SSV Ulm 18461–1FC 08 Homburg25 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed
D
FSV Mainz 05 II1–1SSV Ulm 184617 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 53% · missed
D
FC Astoria Walldorf0–0SSV Ulm 184629 Aug · away
Pick: FC Astoria Walldorf 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

VfR Mannheim

W
VfR Mannheim3–2Kaiserslautern II31 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Mannheim 60% · hit
W
TSV Steinbach0–2VfR Mannheim24 Oct · away
Pick: TSV Steinbach 44% · missed
W
Hessen Kassel0–3VfR Mannheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 42% · missed
W
Eintracht Frankfurt II0–1VfR Mannheim14 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt II 45% · missed
D
Freiburg II0–0VfR Mannheim30 Aug · away
Pick: Freiburg II 47% · missed

About this match

SSV Ulm 1846 and VfR Mannheim meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Donaustadion, Ulm. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SSV Ulm 1846 win 35.5%, draw 20.1%, VfR Mannheim win 44.4%. The pick is VfR Mannheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.