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Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium ACFF - 13 2026

Stade Mouscronnois vs Braine

Stade Mouscronnois Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Braine Away · Elo 1,544
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Braine win
Stade Mouscronnois win
27.2%
Draw
35.4%
Braine winPick
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.4%
Under 2.555.6%

How much we know

Stade Mouscronnois history3 matches
Braine history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Braine are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Braine are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,514. On rating alone Braine would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Stade Mouscronnois, against 1.71 over 31 for Braine.

  • Defences are close

    Stade Mouscronnois concede 1.00 a game, Braine 1.06.

  • Braine games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Stade Mouscronnois matches, against 52% for Braine. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stade Mouscronnois
Braine@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.9
ELO
1543.9
3
ELO · Matches
31
1513.9
Current Team ELO
1543.9
1543.9
Current Opponent ELO
1513.9
-29.98
Current ELO Difference
29.98
0.46
Expected score
0.54
3
History Matches
31
0.20
Residual Mean
0.08
52.61
Overperformance
54.77
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
66.7%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
1.67
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
66.7%
Win rate
60.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
31
2.00
PPG
1.81
66.7%
Win rate
54.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
14
3.00
PPG
1.57
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
7.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
1
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.71
66.7%
Scoring rate
77.4%
33.3%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.86
100.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
3
History Matches
31
1.67
Goals Mean
1.71
1.70
Goals Std
1.32
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
58.1%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.06
66.7%
Conceding rate
54.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
3
History Matches
31
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.82
Conceded Std
1.13
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
31
0.58
Result entropy
0.89
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.88
42.06
Stability score
10.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
16
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.83
1
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.25
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
11
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
2
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviationPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-29.98
PPG0.19
GF-0.04
GA-0.06
PPG-3.00
PPG1.43
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate78.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-28
Result entropy-0.32
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score31.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO-29.98
Current Opponent ELO29.98
Current ELO Difference-59.95
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-28
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance-2.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stade Mouscronnois

W
Stade Mouscronnois2–1Stade Verviers31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
L
Huy6–1Stade Mouscronnois24 Oct · away
Pick: Huy 54% · hit
W
Stade Mouscronnois6–2Richelle United17 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Mouscronnois 39% · hit
D
Stade Mouscronnois1–1AS Eupen II29 Aug · home
Pick: Stade Mouscronnois 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Braine

W
Braine2–0RUS Binche7 Nov · home
Pick: Braine 60% · hit
L
AS Eupen II2–0Braine1 Nov · away
Pick: Braine 39% · missed
L
Braine2–6SG-Tertre-Hautrage24 Oct · home
Pick: Braine 52% · missed
W
Crossing Schaerbeek2–3Braine18 Oct · away
Pick: Crossing Schaerbeek 41% · missed
D
Jette0–0Braine4 Oct · away
Pick: Jette 38% · missed

About this match

Stade Mouscronnois and Braine meet in Second Amateur Division - ACFF on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Stade Mouscronnois win 27.2%, draw 35.4%, Braine win 37.3%. The pick is Braine win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.4%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.