ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Strommen vs Lyn

Strommen Home · Elo 1,518
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lyn Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lyn win
Strommen win
38.7%
Draw
20.1%
Lyn winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.5%
No35.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%

How much we know

Strommen history64 matches
Lyn history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lyn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strommen are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,480. On rating alone Strommen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Strommen score more

    2.16 goals a game over 64 matches for Strommen, against 1.60 over 68 for Lyn.

  • Defences are close

    Strommen concede 1.63 a game, Lyn 1.60.

  • Strommen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Strommen matches, against 65% for Lyn. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strommen
Lyn@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.2
ELO
1480.4
64
ELO · Matches
68
1518.2
Current Team ELO
1480.4
1480.4
Current Opponent ELO
1518.2
37.83
Current ELO Difference
-37.83
0.55
Expected score
0.45
64
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.18
Overperformance
48.71
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
2.50
1.80
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
68
1.73
PPG
1.34
54.7%
Win rate
39.7%
9.4%
Draw rate
14.7%
35.9%
Loss rate
45.6%
85.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
35
1.88
PPG
1.51
60.6%
Win rate
45.7%
6.1%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
33
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.16
Goals for per game
1.60
81.3%
Scoring rate
73.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
54.4%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.74
81.8%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.6%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.61
61.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
68
2.16
Goals Mean
1.60
1.78
Goals Std
1.48
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
59.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
32.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.60
78.1%
Conceding rate
77.9%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.43
72.7%
Conceding rate
68.6%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.11
88.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
64
History Matches
68
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.42
Conceded Std
1.30
48.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.5%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
68
0.84
Result entropy
0.92
2.56
Goal Difference Std
2.14
16.28
Stability score
8.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
66
29
Lead Matches
23
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.78
18
Trailing Matches
20
11.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.96
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.83
PPG
1.11
22.2%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
11.1%
61.1%
Loss rate
55.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.83
Current Competition PPG
1.11
-1.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.55
Portability PPG Range
1.50
49.42
Portability Score
49.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO37.83
PPG0.40
GF0.55
GA0.02
PPG-0.28
PPG0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score7.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.37
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-0.11
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO37.83
Current Opponent ELO-37.83
Current ELO Difference75.66
Expected score0.11
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Strommen

L
Egersund3–1Strommen1 Nov · away
Pick: Egersund 57% · hit
W
Strommen1–0Stromsgodset25 Oct · home
Pick: Stromsgodset 47% · missed
W
ODD Ballklubb1–2Strommen18 Oct · away
Pick: ODD Ballklubb 56% · missed
W
Strommen6–1Asane14 Oct · home
Pick: Strommen 46% · hit
W
Moss1–2Strommen30 Aug · away
Pick: Moss 51% · missed

Lyn

W
Lyn4–0Raufoss1 Nov · home
Pick: Lyn 53% · hit
W
Tromsdalen Uil1–3Lyn28 Oct · away
Pick: Lyn 56% · hit
L
Sandnes ULF2–1Lyn25 Oct · away
Pick: Sandnes ULF 43% · hit
W
Lyn1–0Moss18 Oct · home
Pick: Lyn 46% · hit
L
Haugesund3–0Lyn14 Oct · away
Pick: Haugesund 56% · hit

About this match

Strommen and Lyn meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Strommen win 38.7%, draw 20.1%, Lyn win 41.2%. The pick is Lyn win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.2%. Both teams to score: 64.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.