ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

Sydney Olympic vs Oakleigh Cannons

Sydney Olympic Home · Elo 1,422
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oakleigh Cannons Away · Elo 1,641
Sydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sydney Olympic win
Sydney Olympic winPick
45.4%
Draw
14.6%
Oakleigh Cannons win
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.4%
Under 2.536.6%

How much we know

Sydney Olympic history65 matches
Oakleigh Cannons history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sydney Olympic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oakleigh Cannons are rated 220 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,422. On rating alone Oakleigh Cannons would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Oakleigh Cannons score more

    1.43 goals a game over 65 matches for Sydney Olympic, against 2.16 over 51 for Oakleigh Cannons.

  • Oakleigh Cannons concede fewer

    Sydney Olympic concede 1.77 a game, Oakleigh Cannons 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Sydney Olympic matches, against 69% for Oakleigh Cannons. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sydney Olympic
Oakleigh Cannons@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1421.6
ELO
1641.3
65
ELO · Matches
51
1421.6
Current Team ELO
1641.3
1641.3
Current Opponent ELO
1421.6
-219.8
Current ELO Difference
219.8
0.22
Expected score
0.78
65
History Matches
51
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.14
45.37
Overperformance
60.00
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
51
1.06
PPG
1.96
29.2%
Win rate
58.8%
18.5%
Draw rate
19.6%
52.3%
Loss rate
21.6%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
66.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
25
0.91
PPG
1.92
25.0%
Win rate
52.0%
15.6%
Draw rate
36.0%
59.4%
Loss rate
12.0%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
32
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
2.16
72.3%
Scoring rate
94.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.88
68.8%
Scoring rate
88.0%
56.3%
BTTS rate
52.0%
65
History Matches
51
1.43
Goals Mean
2.16
1.34
Goals Std
1.24
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
94.1%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.7%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
41.2%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.77
Goals against per game
1.10
86.2%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.81
Goals against per game
0.96
84.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
51
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Conceded Std
1.14
55.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.88
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.87
8.03
Stability score
12.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
51
23
Lead Matches
23
60.9%
Lead Win Rate
95.7%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.97
23
Trailing Matches
8
8.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.15
Rest days
75.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
29
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.03
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.39
66.00
Portability Score
71.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-219.8
PPG-0.90
GF-0.73
GA0.67
PPG-1.01
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate21.8%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate19.3%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.67
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate26.0%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches14
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-4.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.35
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-5.90
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.04
Current Team ELO-219.8
Current Opponent ELO219.8
Current ELO Difference-439.6
Expected score-0.56
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-14.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sydney Olympic

W
Sydney Olympic3–2Marconi Stallions30 Oct · home
Pick: Marconi Stallions 54% · missed
L
Sydney Olympic1–2Bayswater City25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayswater City 41% · hit
L
Oakleigh Cannons4–2Sydney Olympic16 Oct · away
Pick: Oakleigh Cannons 45% · hit
D
Sydney Olympic1–1Sydney FC U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Sydney Olympic 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oakleigh Cannons

W
Oakleigh Cannons4–2Sydney Olympic16 Oct · home
Pick: Oakleigh Cannons 45% · hit
L
Oakleigh Cannons2–3Dandenong City29 Aug · home
Pick: Oakleigh Cannons 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sydney Olympic and Oakleigh Cannons meet in Australian Championship on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Sydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sydney Olympic win 45.4%, draw 14.6%, Oakleigh Cannons win 40.0%. The pick is Sydney Olympic win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.4%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.