ScoreProb
A-League Australia Round 4 2026

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners

Sydney Home · Elo 1,582
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Central Coast Mariners Away · Elo 1,473
Sydney Football Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sydney win
Sydney winPick
64.9%
Draw
18.6%
Central Coast Mariners win
16.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

Sydney history55 matches
Central Coast Mariners history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 08:40 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sydney are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sydney are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,473. On rating alone Sydney would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Sydney score more

    1.53 goals a game over 55 matches for Sydney, against 1.21 over 42 for Central Coast Mariners.

  • Sydney concede fewer

    Sydney concede 1.13 a game, Central Coast Mariners 1.86.

  • Central Coast Mariners games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Sydney matches, against 67% for Central Coast Mariners. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sydney
Central Coast Mariners@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.8
ELO
1473.4
55
ELO · Matches
42
1581.8
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1581.8
108.3
Current ELO Difference
-108.3
0.65
Expected score
0.35
55
History Matches
42
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.77
Overperformance
47.75
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
42
1.65
PPG
0.98
45.5%
Win rate
21.4%
29.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.5%
Loss rate
45.2%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
22
1.60
PPG
0.91
40.0%
Win rate
22.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
54.5%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
25
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.21
76.4%
Scoring rate
73.8%
49.1%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.09
88.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
68.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
42
1.53
Goals Mean
1.21
1.26
Goals Std
1.01
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.86
65.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.28
Goals against per game
2.05
76.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
55
History Matches
42
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.10
Conceded Std
1.25
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.3%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
42
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.98
Stability score
3.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
42
11
Lead Matches
10
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.70
11
Trailing Matches
16
45.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.97
Rest days
107.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.55
Portability PPG Range
0.56
46.02
Portability Score
63.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO108.3
PPG0.68
GF0.31
GA-0.73
PPG0.69
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.65
History Matches13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate30.9%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate8.0%
Trailing Win Rate11.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.98
Portability Score-17.91
Rest days-27.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.70
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO108.3
Current Opponent ELO-108.3
Current ELO Difference216.7
Expected score0.30
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sydney

L
Melbourne City2–1Sydney31 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne City 35% · hit
W
Sydney2–1Adelaide United25 Oct · home
Pick: Sydney 60% · hit
D
Sydney0–0Western Sydney Wanderers16 Oct · home
Pick: Sydney 56% · missed
L
Sydney0–2Melbourne Victory9 Sep · home
Pick: Sydney 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Central Coast Mariners

D
Melbourne Victory1–1Central Coast Mariners1 Nov · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory 59% · missed
L
Wellington Phoenix2–0Central Coast Mariners25 Oct · away
Pick: Central Coast Mariners 42% · missed
D
Central Coast Mariners2–2Newcastle Jets17 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle Jets 49% · missed
L
Vanuatu United3–2Central Coast Mariners9 Sep · away
Pick: Vanuatu United 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sydney and Central Coast Mariners meet in A-League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 08:40 UTC. The match is played at Sydney Football Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sydney win 64.9%, draw 18.6%, Central Coast Mariners win 16.6%. The pick is Sydney win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.