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Eerste Divisie Suriname Group Stage 2026

Transvaal vs Leo Victor

Transvaal Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leo Victor Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leo Victor win
Transvaal win
31.8%
Draw
28.9%
Leo Victor winPick
39.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Transvaal history16 matches
Leo Victor history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Leo Victor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,512. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 16 matches for Transvaal, against 1.44 over 25 for Leo Victor.

  • Transvaal concede fewer

    Transvaal concede 1.00 a game, Leo Victor 1.52.

  • Leo Victor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Transvaal matches, against 64% for Leo Victor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Transvaal
Leo Victor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.4
ELO
1512.5
16
ELO · Matches
25
1530.4
Current Team ELO
1512.5
1512.5
Current Opponent ELO
1530.4
17.87
Current ELO Difference
-17.87
0.53
Expected score
0.47
16
History Matches
25
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
53.63
Overperformance
51.25
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
25
1.69
PPG
1.40
43.8%
Win rate
40.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
18.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
13
1.14
PPG
1.54
14.3%
Win rate
38.5%
71.4%
Draw rate
38.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
23.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
7
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.44
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.77
71.4%
Scoring rate
76.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
76.9%
16
History Matches
25
1.50
Goals Mean
1.44
1.37
Goals Std
1.24
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.52
56.3%
Conceding rate
88.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.54
57.1%
Conceding rate
84.6%
16
History Matches
25
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.27
Conceded Std
1.17
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
25
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.62
5.03
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
16
3
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.81
2
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
222.9
Rest days
173.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
11
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.14
57.29
Portability Score
46.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO17.87
PPG0.29
GF0.06
GA-0.52
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate31.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate27.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.65
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score1.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score10.56
Rest days49.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO17.87
Current Opponent ELO-17.87
Current ELO Difference35.75
Expected score0.05
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Transvaal

W
Coronie Boys0–3Transvaal4 Nov · away
Pick: Transvaal 36% · hit
W
Transvaal3–0PVV24 Oct · home
Pick: Transvaal 50% · hit
W
Flora0–1Transvaal17 Oct · away
Pick: Transvaal 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Leo Victor

W
Coronie Boys0–3Leo Victor1 Nov · away
Pick: Coronie Boys 38% · missed
W
Flora1–2Leo Victor28 Oct · away
Pick: Leo Victor 57% · hit
W
Leo Victor2–0Robin Hood25 Oct · home
Pick: Robin Hood 51% · missed
W
Leo Victor2–1Voorwaarts18 Oct · home
Pick: Leo Victor 51% · hit
D
Leo Victor0–0Notch15 Oct · home
Pick: Leo Victor 52% · missed

About this match

Transvaal and Leo Victor meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Transvaal win 31.8%, draw 28.9%, Leo Victor win 39.3%. The pick is Leo Victor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.