Tricolorul Breaza vs Sepsi II
Match result probability Model pick: Tricolorul Breaza win
Tricolorul Breaza winPick
45.9%
Draw
21.5%
Sepsi II win
32.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.1%
No43.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%
How much we know
Tricolorul Breaza history39 matches
Sepsi II history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Tricolorul Breaza
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Tricolorul Breaza are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sepsi II are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,535 against 1,481. On rating alone Sepsi II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Sepsi II score far more
1.33 goals a game over 39 matches for Tricolorul Breaza, against 2.10 over 31 for Sepsi II.
-
Sepsi II concede fewer
Tricolorul Breaza concede 1.72 a game, Sepsi II 1.52.
-
Sepsi II games more often go over 2.5 goals
59% of Tricolorul Breaza matches, against 74% for Sepsi II. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sepsi II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1480.9
ELO
1535.0
39
ELO · Matches
31
1480.9
Current Team ELO
1535.0
1535.0
Current Opponent ELO
1480.9
-54.01
Current ELO Difference
54.01
0.42
Expected score
0.58
39
History Matches
31
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
47.69
Overperformance
52.40
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
39
Matches
31
1.15
PPG
1.77
30.8%
Win rate
58.1%
23.1%
Draw rate
3.2%
46.2%
Loss rate
38.7%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
18
1.59
PPG
1.39
41.2%
Win rate
44.4%
35.3%
Draw rate
5.6%
23.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.15
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
2.10
61.5%
Scoring rate
77.4%
41.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.72
70.6%
Scoring rate
61.1%
47.1%
BTTS rate
33.3%
39
History Matches
31
1.33
Goals Mean
2.10
1.35
Goals Std
1.87
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
32.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.72
Goals against per game
1.52
71.8%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.67
70.6%
Conceding rate
72.2%
39
History Matches
31
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.77
Conceded Std
1.32
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.4%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
39
History Matches
31
0.96
Result entropy
0.72
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.79
3.71
Stability score
27.74
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
17
3
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
3
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.65
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
107.9
Rest days
174.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.91
0.31
Portability PPG Range
2.07
79.07
Portability Score
35.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
39
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.01
PPG-0.62
GF-0.76
GA0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches8
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-24.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.78
Portability PPG Range-1.76
Portability Score43.68
Rest days-66.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-54.01
Current Opponent ELO54.01
Current ELO Difference-108.0
Expected score-0.15
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Tricolorul Breaza
L
Inter Sibiu5–0Tricolorul Breaza6 Nov · away
Pick: Tricolorul Breaza 48% · missed L
Kids Tâmpa Braşov3–1Tricolorul Breaza30 Oct · away
Pick: Kids Tâmpa Braşov 42% · hit L
Tricolorul Breaza0–2Săcele24 Oct · home
Pick: Tricolorul Breaza 45% · missed L
Tricolorul Breaza0–5Baicoi17 Oct · home
Pick: Baicoi 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sepsi II
D
Sepsi II0–0Carpati Covasna6 Nov · home
Pick: Sepsi II 63% · missed L
Sepsi II1–3ARO Muscelul Câmpulung30 Oct · home
Pick: ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 42% · hit L
ACS Mediaş 20223–2Sepsi II23 Oct · away
Pick: ACS Mediaş 2022 42% · hit L
Sepsi II0–2Corona Braşov16 Oct · home
Pick: Sepsi II 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Tricolorul Breaza and Sepsi II meet in Liga III - Serie 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Tricolorul Breaza win 45.9%, draw 21.5%, Sepsi II win 32.7%. The pick is Tricolorul Breaza win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.