ScoreProb
Primera B Colombia Round 3 2026

Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo

Union Magdalena Home · Elo 1,494
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ind. Yumbo Away · Elo 1,474
Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union Magdalena win
Union Magdalena winPick
56.9%
Draw
23.7%
Ind. Yumbo win
19.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%
No55.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Union Magdalena history51 matches
Ind. Yumbo history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 1 d 17 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Union Magdalena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,494 against 1,474. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Union Magdalena score more

    1.22 goals a game over 51 matches for Union Magdalena, against 0.82 over 17 for Ind. Yumbo.

  • Defences are close

    Union Magdalena concede 1.20 a game, Ind. Yumbo 1.24.

  • Union Magdalena games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Union Magdalena matches, against 18% for Ind. Yumbo. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Magdalena
Ind. Yumbo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.3
ELO
1473.6
51
ELO · Matches
17
1494.3
Current Team ELO
1473.6
1473.6
Current Opponent ELO
1494.3
20.74
Current ELO Difference
-20.74
0.53
Expected score
0.47
51
History Matches
17
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.10
49.00
Overperformance
45.23
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
17
1.29
PPG
1.06
35.3%
Win rate
23.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
35.3%
41.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
17.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
11
1.52
PPG
1.27
39.1%
Win rate
36.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
18.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
45.5%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
18.2%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
23
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
0.82
66.7%
Scoring rate
52.9%
51.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.82
65.2%
Scoring rate
36.4%
47.8%
BTTS rate
9.1%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.93
70.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.7%
51
History Matches
17
1.22
Goals Mean
0.82
1.11
Goals Std
0.92
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
23.5%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.24
76.5%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.00
65.2%
Conceding rate
54.5%
0.88
Goals against per game
0.86
66.7%
Conceding rate
64.3%
51
History Matches
17
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.86
Conceded Std
1.11
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
17
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.68
2.30
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
17
11
Lead Matches
5
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.73
12
Trailing Matches
3
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.17
Rest days
73.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
22
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
14
1.75
PPG
1.29
50.0%
Win rate
28.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
7.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
24
Current Competition Matches
14
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.29
0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.07
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.29
58.17
Portability Score
43.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.74
PPG0.24
GF0.39
GA-0.04
PPG0.46
PPG0.25
PPG-1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches34
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate13.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches34
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches34
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate21.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches10
Current Competition PPG0.46
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.51
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.41
Portability Score14.42
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO20.74
Current Opponent ELO-20.74
Current ELO Difference41.47
Expected score0.06
History Matches34
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Magdalena

D
Union Magdalena1–1Envigado2 Nov · home
Pick: Union Magdalena 39% · missed
W
Union Magdalena1–0Depor FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Magdalena 71% · hit
W
Internacional Palmira0–1Union Magdalena19 Oct · away
Pick: Internacional Palmira 50% · missed
D
Union Magdalena1–1Ind. Yumbo15 Oct · home
Pick: Union Magdalena 57% · missed
D
Popayan1–1Union Magdalena7 Oct · away
Pick: Popayan 38% · missed

Ind. Yumbo

L
Ind. Yumbo2–4Popayan2 Nov · home
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 44% · missed
L
Real Soacha1–0Ind. Yumbo24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Soacha 52% · hit
W
Ind. Yumbo3–0Popayan20 Oct · home
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 44% · hit
D
Union Magdalena1–1Ind. Yumbo15 Oct · away
Pick: Union Magdalena 57% · missed
D
Ind. Yumbo1–1Tigres FC8 Oct · home
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 46% · missed

About this match

Union Magdalena and Ind. Yumbo meet in Primera B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Union Magdalena win 56.9%, draw 23.7%, Ind. Yumbo win 19.4%. The pick is Union Magdalena win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 44.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.