ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie B Czechia Group B - 14 2026

Ústí nad Labem II vs Rapid Psáry

Ústí nad Labem II Home · Elo 1,415
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rapid Psáry Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rapid Psáry win
Ústí nad Labem II win
30.8%
Draw
18.0%
Rapid Psáry winPick
51.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%

How much we know

Ústí nad Labem II history53 matches
Rapid Psáry history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rapid Psáry are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rapid Psáry are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,477 against 1,415. On rating alone Rapid Psáry would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 53 matches for Ústí nad Labem II, against 1.79 over 33 for Rapid Psáry.

  • Rapid Psáry concede fewer

    Ústí nad Labem II concede 2.11 a game, Rapid Psáry 1.79.

  • Ústí nad Labem II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Ústí nad Labem II matches, against 64% for Rapid Psáry. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ústí nad Labem II
Rapid Psáry
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1415.2
ELO
1477.0
53
ELO · Matches
33
1415.2
Current Team ELO
1477.0
1477.0
Current Opponent ELO
1415.2
-61.81
Current ELO Difference
61.81
0.41
Expected score
0.59
53
History Matches
33
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
43.61
Overperformance
48.40
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.20
Goals for per game
1.40
3.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
33
1.06
PPG
1.24
28.3%
Win rate
33.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
24.2%
50.9%
Loss rate
42.4%
84.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
71.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
54.7%
Over 3.5 rate
48.5%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
15
1.25
PPG
0.93
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
41.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
24
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.79
67.9%
Scoring rate
78.8%
58.5%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.07
87.5%
Scoring rate
73.3%
83.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
53
History Matches
33
1.62
Goals Mean
1.79
1.67
Goals Std
1.59
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
26.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.11
Goals against per game
1.79
84.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
91.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
33
2.11
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.57
Conceded Std
1.67
58.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
35.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
33
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
2.58
Goal Difference Std
2.44
6.50
Stability score
2.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
33
10
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.82
22
Trailing Matches
11
13.6%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.71
Rest days
77.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
15
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
29
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.15
1.31
Portability PPG Range
0.30
47.21
Portability Score
77.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-61.81
PPG-0.19
GF-0.17
GA0.33
PPG-0.67
PPG0.32
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.06
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score4.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.01
Portability Score-29.93
Rest days0.66
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO-61.81
Current Opponent ELO61.81
Current ELO Difference-123.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ústí nad Labem II

L
Karlovy Vary4–0Ústí nad Labem II31 Oct · away
Pick: Karlovy Vary 76% · hit
W
Ústí nad Labem II4–1Slavoj Vyšehrad24 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Labem II 54% · hit
L
Hvězda Cheb6–0Ústí nad Labem II17 Oct · away
Pick: Hvězda Cheb 52% · hit
L
Ústí nad Labem II0–4Sokol Hostouň29 Aug · home
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rapid Psáry

W
Slavoj Vyšehrad1–2Rapid Psáry31 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Psáry 59% · hit
W
Rapid Psáry3–1Slovan Velvary24 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Velvary 46% · missed
D
Újezd Praha 42–2Rapid Psáry17 Oct · away
Pick: Újezd Praha 4 53% · missed
D
Sokol Hostouň1–1Rapid Psáry4 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 66% · missed
W
Rapid Psáry2–1Slaný29 Aug · home
Pick: Slaný 55% · missed

About this match

Ústí nad Labem II and Rapid Psáry meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ústí nad Labem II win 30.8%, draw 18.0%, Rapid Psáry win 51.2%. The pick is Rapid Psáry win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.3%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.