ScoreProb
3. liga - CFL B Czechia Group B - 14 2026

Velké Hamry vs Horní Ředice

Velké Hamry Home · Elo 1,439
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Horní Ředice Away · Elo 1,561
Stadion Velke Hamry Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Velké Hamry win
Velké Hamry winPick
57.8%
Draw
17.0%
Horní Ředice win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%

How much we know

Velké Hamry history59 matches
Horní Ředice history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Velké Hamry are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Horní Ředice are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,439. On rating alone Horní Ředice would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.83 goals a game over 59 matches for Velké Hamry, against 2.02 over 55 for Horní Ředice.

  • Defences are close

    Velké Hamry concede 1.61 a game, Horní Ředice 1.69.

  • Horní Ředice games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Velké Hamry matches, against 78% for Horní Ředice. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Velké Hamry
Horní Ředice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.6
ELO
1560.9
59
ELO · Matches
55
1438.6
Current Team ELO
1560.9
1560.9
Current Opponent ELO
1438.6
-122.3
Current ELO Difference
122.3
0.33
Expected score
0.67
59
History Matches
55
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
45.60
Overperformance
54.30
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.20
0.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.90
0.70
Goals for per game
2.40
2.60
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
55
1.36
PPG
1.75
37.3%
Win rate
54.5%
23.7%
Draw rate
10.9%
39.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
78.2%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.43
PPG
1.38
39.3%
Win rate
42.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
11.5%
35.7%
Loss rate
46.2%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
2.02
69.5%
Scoring rate
78.2%
52.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.62
71.4%
Scoring rate
65.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.2%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
55
1.83
Goals Mean
2.02
1.94
Goals Std
1.48
69.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
47.5%
Scored 2+ rate
61.8%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
38.2%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.69
79.7%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.65
75.0%
Conceding rate
76.9%
3.33
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
55
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.30
Conceded Std
1.52
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.3%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.86
2.65
Goal Difference Std
2.48
2.02
Stability score
14.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
55
19
Lead Matches
24
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.93
19
Trailing Matches
16
26.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.05
Rest days
73.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.14
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
1.00
Portability PPG Std
0.34
2.73
Portability PPG Range
0.87
33.38
Portability Score
59.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-122.3
PPG-0.39
GF-0.19
GA-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.04
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches4
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-12.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.68
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.66
Portability PPG Range1.87
Portability Score-26.07
Rest days2.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-122.3
Current Opponent ELO122.3
Current ELO Difference-244.6
Expected score-0.34
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Velké Hamry

L
Chrudim1–0Velké Hamry31 Oct · away
Pick: Chrudim 64% · hit
D
Velké Hamry3–3Benátky nad Jizerou24 Oct · home
Pick: Benátky nad Jizerou 49% · missed
L
Pardubice II6–0Velké Hamry18 Oct · away
Pick: Pardubice II 68% · hit
L
Čáslav2–1Velké Hamry4 Oct · away
Pick: Čáslav 55% · hit
L
Velké Hamry0–3Mladá Boleslav II29 Aug · home
Pick: Mladá Boleslav II 49% · hit

Horní Ředice

L
Horní Ředice0–2Neratovice-Byškovice31 Oct · home
Pick: Neratovice-Byškovice 42% · hit
W
Varnsdorf1–3Horní Ředice28 Oct · away
Pick: Varnsdorf 58% · missed
L
Slovan Liberec II5–1Horní Ředice24 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Liberec II 55% · hit
L
Chrudim2–1Horní Ředice17 Oct · away
Pick: Chrudim 64% · hit
W
Horní Ředice1–0Hradec Králové II29 Aug · home
Pick: Hradec Králové II 45% · missed

About this match

Velké Hamry and Horní Ředice meet in 3. liga - CFL B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Velke Hamry. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Velké Hamry win 57.8%, draw 17.0%, Horní Ředice win 25.2%. The pick is Velké Hamry win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.4%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.