ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 17 2026

VfB Oldenburg vs St. Pauli II

VfB Oldenburg Home · Elo 1,636
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
St. Pauli II Away · Elo 1,446
Marschweg-Stadion, Oldenburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfB Oldenburg win
VfB Oldenburg winPick
68.1%
Draw
16.3%
St. Pauli II win
15.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.6%
Under 2.528.4%

How much we know

VfB Oldenburg history59 matches
St. Pauli II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why VfB Oldenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfB Oldenburg are rated 190 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,446. On rating alone VfB Oldenburg would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • VfB Oldenburg score far more

    2.39 goals a game over 59 matches for VfB Oldenburg, against 1.35 over 60 for St. Pauli II.

  • VfB Oldenburg concede fewer

    VfB Oldenburg concede 1.32 a game, St. Pauli II 1.97.

  • VfB Oldenburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of VfB Oldenburg matches, against 50% for St. Pauli II. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfB Oldenburg
St. Pauli II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1635.8
ELO
1446.0
59
ELO · Matches
60
1635.8
Current Team ELO
1446.0
1446.0
Current Opponent ELO
1635.8
189.8
Current ELO Difference
-189.8
0.75
Expected score
0.25
59
History Matches
60
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.04
58.08
Overperformance
47.03
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
60
1.95
PPG
1.00
57.6%
Win rate
23.3%
22.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
20.3%
Loss rate
46.7%
89.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
74.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
55.9%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.82
PPG
0.69
53.6%
Win rate
17.2%
21.4%
Draw rate
17.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
65.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
60.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.39
Goals for per game
1.35
91.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
67.8%
BTTS rate
65.0%
2.46
Goals for per game
1.14
82.1%
Scoring rate
72.4%
67.9%
BTTS rate
62.1%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
60
2.39
Goals Mean
1.35
1.54
Goals Std
1.11
91.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
66.1%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
47.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.0%
2.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.97
71.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.39
Goals against per game
2.24
75.0%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
60
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.24
Conceded Std
1.67
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.7%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
60
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.80
11.27
Stability score
3.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
59
20
Lead Matches
20
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
55.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.63
16
Trailing Matches
20
50.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
0.75
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.76
54.56
Portability Score
58.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO189.8
PPG0.95
GF1.04
GA-0.64
PPG1.75
PPG1.13
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Goals Mean1.04
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate11.5%
Scored 2+ rate32.8%
Scored 3+ rate32.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score7.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.54
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate30.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-3.46
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.91
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.09
Current Team ELO189.8
Current Opponent ELO-189.8
Current ELO Difference379.5
Expected score0.50
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance11.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfB Oldenburg

D
Atlas Delmenhorst1–1VfB Oldenburg30 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 44% · missed
W
VfB Oldenburg2–1HSC Hannover24 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 70% · hit
W
Hamburger SV II1–2VfB Oldenburg18 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 67% · hit
W
VfB Oldenburg7–3Eimsbütteler TV29 Aug · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 61% · hit
W
Todesfelde1–4VfB Oldenburg26 Aug · away
Pick: Todesfelde 41% · missed

St. Pauli II

D
St. Pauli II1–1Eimsbütteler TV1 Nov · home
Pick: Eimsbütteler TV 48% · missed
W
St. Pauli II3–0Weiche Flensburg25 Oct · home
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 52% · missed
L
VfB Lübeck4–1St. Pauli II17 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Lübeck 48% · hit
D
St. Pauli II2–2Phönix Lübeck30 Aug · home
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 58% · missed
L
Schöningen3–2St. Pauli II26 Aug · away
Pick: Schöningen 60% · hit

About this match

VfB Oldenburg and St. Pauli II meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Marschweg-Stadion, Oldenburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: VfB Oldenburg win 68.1%, draw 16.3%, St. Pauli II win 15.6%. The pick is VfB Oldenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.6%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.