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Liga III - Serie 7 Romania Group 7 - 13 2026

Viitorul Arad vs Universitatea Alba Iulia

Viitorul Arad Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Universitatea Alba Iulia Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viitorul Arad win
Viitorul Arad winPick
42.4%
Draw
21.7%
Universitatea Alba Iulia win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Viitorul Arad history34 matches
Universitatea Alba Iulia history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Viitorul Arad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,474 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Universitatea Alba Iulia score more

    1.29 goals a game over 34 matches for Viitorul Arad, against 1.74 over 31 for Universitatea Alba Iulia.

  • Defences are close

    Viitorul Arad concede 1.65 a game, Universitatea Alba Iulia 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Viitorul Arad matches, against 74% for Universitatea Alba Iulia. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viitorul Arad
Universitatea Alba Iulia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.5
ELO
1495.9
34
ELO · Matches
31
1473.5
Current Team ELO
1495.9
1495.9
Current Opponent ELO
1473.5
-22.38
Current ELO Difference
22.38
0.47
Expected score
0.53
34
History Matches
31
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.23
Overperformance
49.07
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
3.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
2.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.94
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
31
1.29
PPG
1.42
41.2%
Win rate
41.9%
5.9%
Draw rate
16.1%
52.9%
Loss rate
41.9%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.56
PPG
1.29
50.0%
Win rate
41.2%
6.3%
Draw rate
5.9%
43.8%
Loss rate
52.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
82.4%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.74
70.6%
Scoring rate
77.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.53
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
34
History Matches
31
1.29
Goals Mean
1.74
1.07
Goals Std
1.63
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.2%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
1.58
79.4%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.59
75.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
34
History Matches
31
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.33
Conceded Std
1.31
47.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.2%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
31
0.79
Result entropy
0.93
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.32
20.93
Stability score
6.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
23
6
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.79
6
Trailing Matches
6
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
107.9
Rest days
107.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
1.03
Portability PPG Std
0.18
2.45
Portability PPG Range
0.35
32.63
Portability Score
73.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-22.38
PPG-0.13
GF-0.45
GA0.07
PPG0.27
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score14.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.86
Portability PPG Range2.10
Portability Score-41.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-22.38
Current Opponent ELO22.38
Current ELO Difference-44.76
Expected score-0.06
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viitorul Arad

W
Progresul Pecica2–3Viitorul Arad6 Nov · away
Pick: Progresul Pecica 41% · missed
W
Cetate Deva1–4Viitorul Arad30 Oct · away
Pick: Cetate Deva 39% · missed
W
Viitorul Arad2–1Poli Timisoara 224 Oct · home
Pick: Viitorul Arad 61% · hit
W
Viitorul Arad1–0Timişul Şag17 Oct · home
Pick: Viitorul Arad 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Universitatea Alba Iulia

W
Universitatea Alba Iulia3–0Nera Bogodinţi6 Nov · home
Pick: Universitatea Alba Iulia 62% · hit
L
Universitatea Alba Iulia0–3Unirea Alba Iulia30 Oct · home
Pick: Unirea Alba Iulia 56% · hit
L
Metalurgistul Cugir2–1Universitatea Alba Iulia23 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurgistul Cugir 42% · hit
L
Universitatea Alba Iulia0–2Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii16 Oct · home
Pick: Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Viitorul Arad and Universitatea Alba Iulia meet in Liga III - Serie 7 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Viitorul Arad win 42.4%, draw 21.7%, Universitatea Alba Iulia win 35.9%. The pick is Viitorul Arad win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.