ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin

Widzew Łódź Home · Elo 1,549
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pogon Szczecin Away · Elo 1,552
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Widzew Łódź win
Widzew Łódź winPick
37.6%
Draw
26.4%
Pogon Szczecin win
36.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

Widzew Łódź history72 matches
Pogon Szczecin history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Widzew Łódź are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,549 against 1,552. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pogon Szczecin score more

    1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for Widzew Łódź, against 1.63 over 70 for Pogon Szczecin.

  • Widzew Łódź concede fewer

    Widzew Łódź concede 1.19 a game, Pogon Szczecin 1.33.

  • Pogon Szczecin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Widzew Łódź matches, against 56% for Pogon Szczecin. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Widzew Łódź
Pogon Szczecin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.6
ELO
1552.5
72
ELO · Matches
70
1548.6
Current Team ELO
1552.5
1552.5
Current Opponent ELO
1548.6
-3.91
Current ELO Difference
3.91
0.49
Expected score
0.51
72
History Matches
70
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.75
Overperformance
53.14
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.33
PPG
1.53
36.1%
Win rate
44.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
35.7%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
34
1.71
PPG
1.12
48.8%
Win rate
29.4%
24.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
26.8%
Loss rate
47.1%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
41
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.63
73.6%
Scoring rate
74.3%
48.6%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.15
78.0%
Scoring rate
64.7%
46.3%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.29
Goals Mean
1.63
1.21
Goals Std
1.43
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
36.1%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.1%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.33
65.3%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.41
58.5%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.11
Conceded Std
1.18
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.89
1.54
Stability score
4.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
24
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
20
11.8%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
38
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
31
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.75
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.45
Portability PPG Range
0.68
50.32
Portability Score
65.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-3.91
PPG-0.20
GF-0.34
GA-0.13
PPG-0.55
PPG0.59
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-2.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate3.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.55
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-15.03
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-3.91
Current Opponent ELO3.91
Current ELO Difference-7.82
Expected score-0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Widzew Łódź

D
Widzew Łódź1–1Gornik Zabrze23 Oct · home
Pick: Gornik Zabrze 39% · missed
D
Widzew Łódź0–0Wisla Krakow16 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew Łódź 47% · missed
L
Widzew Łódź2–3Lech Poznan30 Aug · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pogon Szczecin

L
Raków Częstochowa3–1Pogon Szczecin2 Nov · away
Pick: Raków Częstochowa 51% · hit
W
Pogon Szczecin4–3Radomiak Radom24 Oct · home
Pick: Pogon Szczecin 60% · hit
W
GKS Katowice0–1Pogon Szczecin17 Oct · away
Pick: GKS Katowice 56% · missed
D
Zaglebie Lubin0–0Pogon Szczecin29 Aug · away
Pick: Pogon Szczecin 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin meet in Ekstraklasa on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Widzew Łódź win 37.6%, draw 26.4%, Pogon Szczecin win 36.0%. The pick is Widzew Łódź win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.