ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków

Gornik Zabrze Home · Elo 1,635
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wieczysta Kraków Away · Elo 1,535
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gornik Zabrze win
Gornik Zabrze winPick
52.6%
Draw
26.1%
Wieczysta Kraków win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Gornik Zabrze history71 matches
Wieczysta Kraków history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gornik Zabrze are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gornik Zabrze are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,635 against 1,535. On rating alone Gornik Zabrze would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Wieczysta Kraków score more

    1.41 goals a game over 71 matches for Gornik Zabrze, against 1.95 over 73 for Wieczysta Kraków.

  • Gornik Zabrze concede fewer

    Gornik Zabrze concede 1.03 a game, Wieczysta Kraków 1.37.

  • Wieczysta Kraków games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Gornik Zabrze matches, against 60% for Wieczysta Kraków. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gornik Zabrze
Wieczysta Kraków
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1635.4
ELO
1535.1
71
ELO · Matches
73
1635.4
Current Team ELO
1535.1
1535.1
Current Opponent ELO
1635.4
100.3
Current ELO Difference
-100.3
0.64
Expected score
0.36
71
History Matches
73
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
56.75
Overperformance
52.87
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
73
1.66
PPG
1.60
47.9%
Win rate
45.2%
22.5%
Draw rate
24.7%
29.6%
Loss rate
30.1%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.3%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
18.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
31
1.97
PPG
1.58
59.4%
Win rate
45.2%
18.8%
Draw rate
22.6%
21.9%
Loss rate
32.3%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.95
73.2%
Scoring rate
86.3%
50.7%
BTTS rate
65.8%
1.84
Goals for per game
2.00
78.1%
Scoring rate
83.9%
56.3%
BTTS rate
61.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
73
1.41
Goals Mean
1.95
1.27
Goals Std
1.34
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
39.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.3%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.37
69.0%
Conceding rate
75.3%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.35
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
73
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.37
0.99
Conceded Std
1.08
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
73
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.65
4.54
Stability score
3.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
69
24
Lead Matches
26
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.77
14
Trailing Matches
18
21.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.93
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.88
40
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
25
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.75
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
3
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.94
Portability PPG Range
1.58
39.69
Portability Score
49.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO100.3
PPG0.06
GF-0.54
GA-0.34
PPG2.25
PPG0.39
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate13.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score1.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate14.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-9.70
Rest days5.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.73
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO100.3
Current Opponent ELO-100.3
Current ELO Difference200.7
Expected score0.28
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gornik Zabrze

D
Gornik Zabrze0–0Legia Warszawa30 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa 39% · missed
D
Widzew Łódź1–1Gornik Zabrze23 Oct · away
Pick: Gornik Zabrze 39% · missed
D
Gornik Zabrze1–1Piast Gliwice18 Oct · home
Pick: Gornik Zabrze 66% · missed
L
Gornik Zabrze2–3GKS Katowice30 Aug · home
Pick: Gornik Zabrze 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wieczysta Kraków

L
Slask Wroclaw2–0Wieczysta Kraków25 Oct · away
Pick: Slask Wroclaw 43% · hit
L
Wieczysta Kraków1–2Raków Częstochowa16 Oct · home
Pick: Wieczysta Kraków 43% · missed
L
GKS Katowice2–1Wieczysta Kraków12 Oct · away
Pick: GKS Katowice 60% · hit
L
Wisla Krakow2–0Wieczysta Kraków29 Aug · away
Pick: Wisla Krakow 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków meet in Ekstraklasa on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gornik Zabrze win 52.6%, draw 26.1%, Wieczysta Kraków win 21.3%. The pick is Gornik Zabrze win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.