ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow

Wisla Krakow Home · Elo 1,593
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cracovia Krakow Away · Elo 1,536
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Krakow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wisla Krakow win
Wisla Krakow winPick
47.0%
Draw
26.6%
Cracovia Krakow win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Wisla Krakow history74 matches
Cracovia Krakow history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wisla Krakow are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wisla Krakow are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,536. On rating alone Wisla Krakow would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Wisla Krakow score more

    1.93 goals a game over 74 matches for Wisla Krakow, against 1.29 over 66 for Cracovia Krakow.

  • Wisla Krakow concede fewer

    Wisla Krakow concede 1.03 a game, Cracovia Krakow 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Wisla Krakow matches, against 50% for Cracovia Krakow. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wisla Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1592.9
ELO
1535.8
74
ELO · Matches
66
1592.9
Current Team ELO
1535.8
1535.8
Current Opponent ELO
1592.9
57.13
Current ELO Difference
-57.13
0.58
Expected score
0.42
74
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.44
Overperformance
53.23
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
66
1.88
PPG
1.33
54.1%
Win rate
31.8%
25.7%
Draw rate
37.9%
20.3%
Loss rate
30.3%
77.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
28
1.90
PPG
1.18
56.1%
Win rate
28.6%
22.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
22.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
41
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.93
Goals for per game
1.29
87.8%
Scoring rate
74.2%
52.7%
BTTS rate
57.6%
2.02
Goals for per game
1.14
85.4%
Scoring rate
64.3%
51.2%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
74
History Matches
66
1.93
Goals Mean
1.29
1.46
Goals Std
1.10
87.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.2%
54.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
27.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
2.02
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.29
60.8%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.02
Goals against per game
1.43
61.0%
Conceding rate
60.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
74
History Matches
66
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.10
Conceded Std
1.24
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.02
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
66
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.51
8.51
Stability score
0.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
66
27
Lead Matches
18
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.70
16
Trailing Matches
13
31.3%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.05
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
41
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
25
Long Rest History Matches
31
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.08
Portability PPG Range
0.48
55.52
Portability Score
72.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO57.13
PPG0.55
GF0.64
GA-0.26
PPG-0.20
PPG0.72
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate17.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score8.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-16.77
Rest days-1.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO57.13
Current Opponent ELO-57.13
Current ELO Difference114.3
Expected score0.16
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wisla Krakow

W
Wisla Krakow2–1Raków Częstochowa24 Oct · home
Pick: Wisla Krakow 45% · hit
D
Widzew Łódź0–0Wisla Krakow16 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew Łódź 47% · missed
L
Odra Opole2–1Wisla Krakow1 Sep · away
Pick: Wisla Krakow 44% · missed
W
Wisla Krakow2–0Wieczysta Kraków29 Aug · home
Pick: Wisla Krakow 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cracovia Krakow

L
Cracovia Krakow1–2Motor Lublin30 Oct · home
Pick: Cracovia Krakow 49% · missed
L
Piast Gliwice3–1Cracovia Krakow24 Oct · away
Pick: Cracovia Krakow 38% · missed
D
Cracovia Krakow1–1Legia Warszawa17 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa 56% · missed
L
Radomiak Radom2–1Cracovia Krakow29 Aug · away
Pick: Cracovia Krakow 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow meet in Ekstraklasa on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Krakow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Wisla Krakow win 47.0%, draw 26.6%, Cracovia Krakow win 26.4%. The pick is Wisla Krakow win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.