ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom

Korona Kielce Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Radomiak Radom Away · Elo 1,484
Exbud Arena, Kielce Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Korona Kielce win
Korona Kielce winPick
62.8%
Draw
18.4%
Radomiak Radom win
18.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Korona Kielce history69 matches
Radomiak Radom history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Korona Kielce are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Korona Kielce are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,484. On rating alone Korona Kielce would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Radomiak Radom score more

    1.23 goals a game over 69 matches for Korona Kielce, against 1.53 over 70 for Radomiak Radom.

  • Korona Kielce concede fewer

    Korona Kielce concede 1.06 a game, Radomiak Radom 1.64.

  • Radomiak Radom games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Korona Kielce matches, against 66% for Radomiak Radom. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Korona Kielce
Radomiak Radom
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.9
ELO
1484.0
69
ELO · Matches
70
1543.9
Current Team ELO
1484.0
1484.0
Current Opponent ELO
1543.9
59.92
Current ELO Difference
-59.92
0.59
Expected score
0.41
69
History Matches
70
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.98
Overperformance
50.17
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
70
1.43
PPG
1.26
36.2%
Win rate
31.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
31.4%
29.0%
Loss rate
37.1%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
30
1.65
PPG
0.87
43.2%
Win rate
16.7%
35.1%
Draw rate
36.7%
21.6%
Loss rate
46.7%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
37
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.53
73.9%
Scoring rate
82.9%
52.2%
BTTS rate
74.3%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.20
78.4%
Scoring rate
76.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
73.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
69
History Matches
70
1.23
Goals Mean
1.53
1.05
Goals Std
1.12
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.64
69.6%
Conceding rate
84.3%
0.95
Goals against per game
2.13
62.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
70
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.01
Conceded Std
1.33
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
70
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.41
Stability score
0.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
70
20
Lead Matches
15
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.71
18
Trailing Matches
25
33.3%
Non-loss rate
36.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.25
PPG
0.80
25.0%
Win rate
20.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.60
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.53
48.57
Portability Score
71.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.92
PPG0.18
GF-0.30
GA-0.58
PPG0.45
PPG0.78
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score0.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.45
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range1.13
Portability Score-22.63
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO59.92
Current Opponent ELO-59.92
Current ELO Difference119.8
Expected score0.17
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Korona Kielce

L
Zaglebie Lubin1–0Korona Kielce2 Nov · away
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 45% · hit
L
Polonia Warszawa2–1Korona Kielce29 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Warszawa 40% · hit
W
Korona Kielce1–0GKS Katowice24 Oct · home
Pick: GKS Katowice 43% · missed
L
Lech Poznan6–1Korona Kielce18 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznan 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Radomiak Radom

W
Radomiak Radom3–1Slask Wroclaw2 Nov · home
Pick: Slask Wroclaw 51% · missed
L
Pogon Szczecin4–3Radomiak Radom24 Oct · away
Pick: Pogon Szczecin 60% · hit
L
Wisla Plock1–0Radomiak Radom19 Oct · away
Pick: Wisla Plock 54% · hit
L
Radomiak Radom2–3Motor Lublin12 Oct · home
Pick: Motor Lublin 41% · hit
W
Korona Kielce II0–1Radomiak Radom1 Sep · away
Pick: Radomiak Radom 41% · hit

About this match

Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom meet in Ekstraklasa on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. The match is played at Exbud Arena, Kielce. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Korona Kielce win 62.8%, draw 18.4%, Radomiak Radom win 18.7%. The pick is Korona Kielce win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.