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Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 17 2026

Wormatia Worms vs Cosmos Koblenz

Wormatia Worms Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cosmos Koblenz Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wormatia Worms win
Wormatia Worms winPick
64.7%
Draw
17.5%
Cosmos Koblenz win
17.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.3%
No35.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.1%
Under 2.522.9%

How much we know

Wormatia Worms history59 matches
Cosmos Koblenz history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.7%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Wormatia Worms are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,484 against 1,475. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Wormatia Worms score more

    2.17 goals a game over 59 matches for Wormatia Worms, against 1.50 over 40 for Cosmos Koblenz.

  • Defences are close

    Wormatia Worms concede 1.85 a game, Cosmos Koblenz 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Wormatia Worms matches, against 68% for Cosmos Koblenz. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wormatia Worms
Cosmos Koblenz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.5
ELO
1475.5
59
ELO · Matches
40
1484.5
Current Team ELO
1475.5
1475.5
Current Opponent ELO
1484.5
9.00
Current ELO Difference
-9.00
0.51
Expected score
0.49
59
History Matches
40
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.31
Overperformance
47.66
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.70
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
2.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
40
1.49
PPG
1.30
44.1%
Win rate
37.5%
16.9%
Draw rate
17.5%
39.0%
Loss rate
45.0%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.5%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
67.5%
57.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
21
1.94
PPG
0.81
58.1%
Win rate
23.8%
19.4%
Draw rate
9.5%
22.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
31
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.17
Goals for per game
1.50
84.7%
Scoring rate
82.5%
62.7%
BTTS rate
65.0%
2.45
Goals for per game
1.14
90.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.8%
BTTS rate
52.4%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
40
2.17
Goals Mean
1.50
1.66
Goals Std
1.05
84.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
62.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
35.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.88
74.6%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.35
Goals against per game
2.29
58.1%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
40
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.66
Conceded Std
1.42
52.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
30.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
2.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
40
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.05
6.32
Stability score
6.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
40
18
Lead Matches
10
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
91.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
5
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.35
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.69
42.59
Portability Score
59.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO9.00
PPG0.19
GF0.67
GA-0.03
PPG0.75
PPG1.13
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.61
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate12.7%
Scored 3+ rate23.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.30
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches19
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.24
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate7.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range1.31
Portability Score-16.54
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.60
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO9.00
Current Opponent ELO-9.00
Current ELO Difference18.00
Expected score0.03
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wormatia Worms

W
Wormatia Worms2–1FC Emmelshausen-Karbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Wormatia Worms 65% · hit
L
Schott Mainz3–1Wormatia Worms24 Oct · away
Pick: Schott Mainz 52% · hit
W
Wormatia Worms7–0Eisbachtal17 Oct · home
Pick: Wormatia Worms 69% · hit
L
Gonsenheim6–2Wormatia Worms29 Aug · away
Pick: Wormatia Worms 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cosmos Koblenz

W
Cosmos Koblenz3–0Hertha Wiesbach7 Nov · home
Pick: Cosmos Koblenz 46% · hit
D
TuS Koblenz0–0Cosmos Koblenz31 Oct · away
Pick: TuS Koblenz 72% · missed
L
Cosmos Koblenz0–4Gau-Odernheim24 Oct · home
Pick: Gau-Odernheim 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wormatia Worms and Cosmos Koblenz meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wormatia Worms win 64.7%, draw 17.5%, Cosmos Koblenz win 17.9%. The pick is Wormatia Worms win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.1%. Both teams to score: 64.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.