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Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 17 2026

Diefflen vs FC Emmelshausen-Karbach

Diefflen Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Diefflen win
Diefflen winPick
39.8%
Draw
21.2%
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach win
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.4%
No30.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.2%
Under 2.521.8%

How much we know

Diefflen history52 matches
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Diefflen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Emmelshausen-Karbach are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,465. On rating alone FC Emmelshausen-Karbach would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • FC Emmelshausen-Karbach score more

    1.88 goals a game over 52 matches for Diefflen, against 2.35 over 34 for FC Emmelshausen-Karbach.

  • FC Emmelshausen-Karbach concede fewer

    Diefflen concede 2.42 a game, FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    81% of Diefflen matches, against 74% for FC Emmelshausen-Karbach. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diefflen
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.2
ELO
1556.0
52
ELO · Matches
34
1465.2
Current Team ELO
1556.0
1556.0
Current Opponent ELO
1465.2
-90.82
Current ELO Difference
90.82
0.37
Expected score
0.63
52
History Matches
34
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
47.60
Overperformance
55.08
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
2.80
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
2.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
34
1.15
PPG
1.82
30.8%
Win rate
55.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
14.7%
46.2%
Loss rate
29.4%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
80.8%
Over 2.5 rate
73.5%
69.2%
Over 3.5 rate
58.8%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
17
1.35
PPG
1.53
38.5%
Win rate
47.1%
19.2%
Draw rate
11.8%
42.3%
Loss rate
41.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.5%
Over 2.5 rate
88.2%
76.9%
Over 3.5 rate
70.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.35
84.6%
Scoring rate
88.2%
80.8%
BTTS rate
67.6%
2.27
Goals for per game
2.65
88.5%
Scoring rate
94.1%
80.8%
BTTS rate
82.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
34
1.88
Goals Mean
2.35
1.31
Goals Std
1.55
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
73.5%
30.8%
Scored 3+ rate
41.2%
2.27
Venue Goals Mean
2.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.42
Goals against per game
1.88
96.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
2.31
Goals against per game
2.47
92.3%
Conceding rate
88.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
34
2.42
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.45
Conceded Std
1.53
65.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
46.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.3%
2.31
Venue Conceded Mean
2.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
34
0.96
Result entropy
0.88
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.12
3.71
Stability score
11.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
33
16
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.90
20
Trailing Matches
9
20.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
1.02
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
1.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.88
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.21
81.84
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-90.82
PPG-0.67
GF-0.47
GA0.54
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.18
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches18
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-8.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate3.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-0.51
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-90.82
Current Opponent ELO90.82
Current ELO Difference-181.6
Expected score-0.26
History Matches18
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Diefflen

L
Schott Mainz10–0Diefflen7 Nov · away
Pick: Schott Mainz 69% · hit
D
Diefflen1–1Ahrweiler24 Oct · home
Pick: Diefflen 63% · missed
L
Mechtersheim2–1Diefflen17 Oct · away
Pick: Mechtersheim 47% · hit
L
Elversberg II4–3Diefflen30 Aug · away
Pick: Elversberg II 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach

L
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach1–6Mechtersheim7 Nov · home
Pick: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 47% · missed
L
Wormatia Worms2–1FC Emmelshausen-Karbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Wormatia Worms 65% · hit
W
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach4–2Hertha Wiesbach24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 52% · hit
D
TuS Koblenz0–0FC Emmelshausen-Karbach17 Oct · away
Pick: TuS Koblenz 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Diefflen and FC Emmelshausen-Karbach meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Diefflen win 39.8%, draw 21.2%, FC Emmelshausen-Karbach win 38.9%. The pick is Diefflen win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.2%. Both teams to score: 69.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.