ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Zagłębie Lubin II Home · Elo 1,521
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Goczałkowice Zdrój Away · Elo 1,493
KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zagłębie Lubin II win
Zagłębie Lubin II winPick
58.8%
Draw
19.9%
Goczałkowice Zdrój win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Zagłębie Lubin II history67 matches
Goczałkowice Zdrój history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Zagłębie Lubin II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zagłębie Lubin II are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,493. On rating alone Zagłębie Lubin II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Zagłębie Lubin II score more

    1.94 goals a game over 67 matches for Zagłębie Lubin II, against 1.34 over 64 for Goczałkowice Zdrój.

  • Goczałkowice Zdrój concede fewer

    Zagłębie Lubin II concede 1.90 a game, Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.34.

  • Zagłębie Lubin II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Zagłębie Lubin II matches, against 55% for Goczałkowice Zdrój. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zagłębie Lubin II
Goczałkowice Zdrój
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.0
ELO
1492.8
67
ELO · Matches
64
1521.0
Current Team ELO
1492.8
1492.8
Current Opponent ELO
1521.0
28.22
Current ELO Difference
-28.22
0.54
Expected score
0.46
67
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.49
Overperformance
48.59
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
64
1.52
PPG
1.42
44.8%
Win rate
39.1%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
37.3%
Loss rate
35.9%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
76.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
56.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
1.66
PPG
1.25
51.4%
Win rate
33.3%
11.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
37.1%
Loss rate
41.7%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
77.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
2.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.34
77.6%
Scoring rate
70.3%
64.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.9%
62.9%
BTTS rate
47.2%
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
64
1.94
Goals Mean
1.34
1.59
Goals Std
1.30
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
32.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
1.34
83.6%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.91
Goals against per game
1.61
82.9%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
64
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.49
Conceded Std
1.28
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
26.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
64
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
2.37
Goal Difference Std
1.85
5.73
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
63
19
Lead Matches
15
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.84
16
Trailing Matches
14
18.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
37
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.95
55.65
Portability Score
58.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.22
PPG0.10
GF0.60
GA0.55
PPG1.40
PPG0.41
PPG1.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.60
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate20.8%
Scored 3+ rate14.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score4.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-2.84
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.31
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO28.22
Current Opponent ELO-28.22
Current ELO Difference56.44
Expected score0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zagłębie Lubin II

L
Stal Brzeg4–1Zagłębie Lubin II31 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Brzeg 40% · hit
W
Zagłębie Lubin II3–1Stilon Gorzów25 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 57% · hit
L
Zagłębie Lubin II0–1Zaglebie Sosnowiec17 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 41% · missed
W
Warta Gorzów0–2Zagłębie Lubin II29 Aug · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Goczałkowice Zdrój

W
Goczałkowice Zdrój3–0Odra Bytom Odrzański31 Oct · home
Pick: Goczałkowice Zdrój 44% · hit
L
Górnik Polkowice4–1Goczałkowice Zdrój24 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 59% · hit
W
Goczałkowice Zdrój3–1Barycz Sułów17 Oct · home
Pick: Barycz Sułów 40% · missed
D
Rakow II0–0Goczałkowice Zdrój29 Aug · away
Pick: Goczałkowice Zdrój 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zagłębie Lubin II and Goczałkowice Zdrój meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Zagłębie Lubin II win 58.8%, draw 19.9%, Goczałkowice Zdrój win 21.3%. The pick is Zagłębie Lubin II win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.