ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

Zenit U19 vs Fakel U19

Zenit U19 Home · Elo 1,614
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fakel U19 Away · Elo 1,394
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zenit U19 win
Zenit U19 winPick
77.8%
Draw
12.4%
Fakel U19 win
9.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%

How much we know

Zenit U19 history49 matches
Fakel U19 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Zenit U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zenit U19 are rated 220 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,394. On rating alone Zenit U19 would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Zenit U19 score far more

    2.82 goals a game over 49 matches for Zenit U19, against 1.20 over 49 for Fakel U19.

  • Zenit U19 concede fewer

    Zenit U19 concede 1.08 a game, Fakel U19 1.92.

  • Zenit U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Zenit U19 matches, against 57% for Fakel U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zenit U19
Fakel U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.0
ELO
1393.9
49
ELO · Matches
49
1614.0
Current Team ELO
1393.9
1393.9
Current Opponent ELO
1614.0
220.1
Current ELO Difference
-220.1
0.78
Expected score
0.22
49
History Matches
49
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.10
57.92
Overperformance
42.99
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
2.10
PPG
0.92
67.3%
Win rate
24.5%
8.2%
Draw rate
18.4%
24.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
49.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
2.25
PPG
0.68
70.8%
Win rate
18.2%
12.5%
Draw rate
13.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
68.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.82
Goals for per game
1.20
85.7%
Scoring rate
65.3%
55.1%
BTTS rate
51.0%
3.38
Goals for per game
1.09
91.7%
Scoring rate
54.5%
58.3%
BTTS rate
45.5%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.20
85.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
65.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
49
History Matches
49
2.82
Goals Mean
1.20
2.05
Goals Std
1.16
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
75.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
51.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
3.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.92
69.4%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.23
66.7%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.30
Goals against per game
2.05
80.0%
Conceding rate
95.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.92
0.99
Conceded Std
1.60
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.74
Result entropy
0.89
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.97
25.79
Stability score
11.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
26
Lead Matches
7
96.2%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.57
13
Trailing Matches
19
30.8%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.21
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.95
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
15.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
70.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.95
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.85
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.54
79.56
Portability Score
65.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO220.1
PPG1.18
GF1.61
GA-0.84
PPG1.35
PPG1.57
PPG0.80
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate19.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches0
Goals Mean1.61
Goals Std0.89
Scored 1+ rate20.4%
Scored 2+ rate40.8%
Scored 3+ rate34.7%
Venue Goals Mean2.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.84
Conceded Std-0.62
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score14.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.49
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate39.0%
Lead Points Retention0.40
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate17.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.55
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.15
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score14.54
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.33
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO220.1
Current Opponent ELO-220.1
Current ELO Difference440.2
Expected score0.56
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance14.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zenit U19

D
Dinamo Moskva U192–2Zenit U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit U19 60% · missed
W
Zenit U197–1Almaz Antey U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit U19 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fakel U19

D
Krasnodar U190–0Fakel U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Krasnodar U19 71% · missed
L
Rodina Moscow U195–1Fakel U1916 Oct · away
Pick: Rodina Moscow U19 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zenit U19 and Fakel U19 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Zenit U19 win 77.8%, draw 12.4%, Fakel U19 win 9.8%. The pick is Zenit U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.1%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.