ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

Dinamo Moskva U19 vs Ural U20

Dinamo Moskva U19 Home · Elo 1,519
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ural U20 Away · Elo 1,427
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Moskva U19 win
Dinamo Moskva U19 winPick
55.2%
Draw
19.0%
Ural U20 win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Dinamo Moskva U19 history49 matches
Ural U20 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dinamo Moskva U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Moskva U19 are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,427. On rating alone Dinamo Moskva U19 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Moskva U19 score more

    1.67 goals a game over 49 matches for Dinamo Moskva U19, against 1.20 over 49 for Ural U20.

  • Dinamo Moskva U19 concede fewer

    Dinamo Moskva U19 concede 1.67 a game, Ural U20 2.35.

  • Ural U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Dinamo Moskva U19 matches, against 67% for Ural U20. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dinamo Moskva U19
Ural U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.6
ELO
1426.5
49
ELO · Matches
49
1518.6
Current Team ELO
1426.5
1426.5
Current Opponent ELO
1518.6
92.09
Current ELO Difference
-92.09
0.63
Expected score
0.37
49
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.07
50.56
Overperformance
44.99
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.59
PPG
0.98
46.9%
Win rate
26.5%
18.4%
Draw rate
18.4%
34.7%
Loss rate
55.1%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.0%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
1.95
PPG
0.63
59.1%
Win rate
12.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
62.5%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.20
75.5%
Scoring rate
59.2%
49.0%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.00
81.8%
Scoring rate
54.2%
36.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.67
Goals Mean
1.20
1.41
Goals Std
1.29
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
59.2%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
2.35
67.3%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.05
75.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.67
Conceded Mean
2.35
1.83
Conceded Std
1.88
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.50
5.92
Stability score
9.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
9
Lead Matches
10
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.90
16
Trailing Matches
22
18.8%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.00
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.30
PPG
0.95
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
55.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.30
Current Competition PPG
0.95
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.95
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.05
66.97
Portability Score
95.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO92.09
PPG0.61
GF0.47
GA-0.67
PPG0.35
PPG1.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate16.3%
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-3.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-28.26
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO92.09
Current Opponent ELO-92.09
Current ELO Difference184.2
Expected score0.26
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dinamo Moskva U19

D
Dinamo Moskva U192–2Zenit U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit U19 60% · missed
D
Dinamo Moskva U192–2Rostov U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Moskva U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ural U20

W
Ural U201–0Nizhny Novgorod U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Ural U20 52% · hit
L
Ural U205–7Lokomotiv Moskva U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dinamo Moskva U19 and Ural U20 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dinamo Moskva U19 win 55.2%, draw 19.0%, Ural U20 win 25.8%. The pick is Dinamo Moskva U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.