ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

CSKA Moskva U19 vs Krasnodar U19

CSKA Moskva U19 Home · Elo 1,665
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Krasnodar U19 Away · Elo 1,642
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CSKA Moskva U19 win
CSKA Moskva U19 winPick
48.8%
Draw
22.8%
Krasnodar U19 win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%

How much we know

CSKA Moskva U19 history49 matches
Krasnodar U19 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why CSKA Moskva U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,665 against 1,642. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Krasnodar U19 score more

    2.53 goals a game over 49 matches for CSKA Moskva U19, against 3.02 over 49 for Krasnodar U19.

  • CSKA Moskva U19 concede fewer

    CSKA Moskva U19 concede 1.12 a game, Krasnodar U19 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of CSKA Moskva U19 matches, against 71% for Krasnodar U19. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CSKA Moskva U19
Krasnodar U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1665.4
ELO
1642.4
49
ELO · Matches
49
1665.4
Current Team ELO
1642.4
1642.4
Current Opponent ELO
1665.4
23.00
Current ELO Difference
-23.00
0.53
Expected score
0.47
49
History Matches
49
0.16
Residual Mean
0.15
61.64
Overperformance
60.34
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
3.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
2.40
2.70
Goals for per game
3.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.16
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
2.24
PPG
2.18
71.4%
Win rate
69.4%
10.2%
Draw rate
10.2%
18.4%
Loss rate
20.4%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
55.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
2.25
PPG
1.88
75.0%
Win rate
58.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.86
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.53
Goals for per game
3.02
93.9%
Scoring rate
85.7%
59.2%
BTTS rate
59.2%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.29
95.8%
Scoring rate
79.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
58.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
3.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
49
2.53
Goals Mean
3.02
1.37
Goals Std
2.36
93.9%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
73.5%
Scored 2+ rate
71.4%
53.1%
Scored 3+ rate
46.9%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.39
63.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.75
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.15
Conceded Std
1.38
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.71
Result entropy
0.74
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.91
28.59
Stability score
26.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
28
Lead Matches
27
89.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
10
Trailing Matches
11
40.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
36.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
1.27
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.76
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.92
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
2.35
PPG
2.30
75.0%
Win rate
75.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
5.0%
15.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
85.0%
70.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.02
20
Current Competition Matches
20
2.35
Current Competition PPG
2.30
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.20
84.92
Portability Score
83.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.00
PPG0.06
GF-0.49
GA-0.27
PPG0.05
PPG0.38
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.99
Scored 1+ rate8.2%
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.31
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-1.14
Stability score2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.42
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.4%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.15
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score1.35
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO23.00
Current Opponent ELO-23.00
Current ELO Difference45.99
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CSKA Moskva U19

W
Rostov U191–4CSKA Moskva U1930 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva U19 55% · hit
W
Chertanovo U202–5CSKA Moskva U1916 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva U19 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Krasnodar U19

D
Krasnodar U190–0Fakel U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Krasnodar U19 71% · missed
W
Krasnodar U195–0Nizhny Novgorod U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Krasnodar U19 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CSKA Moskva U19 and Krasnodar U19 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: CSKA Moskva U19 win 48.8%, draw 22.8%, Krasnodar U19 win 28.4%. The pick is CSKA Moskva U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.9%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.