ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

Rodina Moscow U19 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20

Rodina Moscow U19 Home · Elo 1,591
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Akademiya Konoplev U20 Away · Elo 1,523
Sapsan Arena, Moscow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rodina Moscow U19 win
Rodina Moscow U19 winPick
61.2%
Draw
17.8%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.7%
No35.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%

How much we know

Rodina Moscow U19 history22 matches
Akademiya Konoplev U20 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.

Why Rodina Moscow U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rodina Moscow U19 are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,523. On rating alone Rodina Moscow U19 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Rodina Moscow U19 score far more

    2.55 goals a game over 22 matches for Rodina Moscow U19, against 1.61 over 49 for Akademiya Konoplev U20.

  • Rodina Moscow U19 concede fewer

    Rodina Moscow U19 concede 1.18 a game, Akademiya Konoplev U20 1.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    73% of Rodina Moscow U19 matches, against 65% for Akademiya Konoplev U20. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rodina Moscow U19
Akademiya Konoplev U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.6
ELO
1523.3
22
ELO · Matches
49
1590.6
Current Team ELO
1523.3
1523.3
Current Opponent ELO
1590.6
67.29
Current ELO Difference
-67.29
0.60
Expected score
0.40
22
History Matches
49
0.21
Residual Mean
0.02
60.75
Overperformance
51.68
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
4.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.70
3.40
Goals for per game
2.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
49
2.09
PPG
1.33
63.6%
Win rate
38.8%
18.2%
Draw rate
16.3%
18.2%
Loss rate
44.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
59.1%
Over 3.5 rate
51.0%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
25
2.27
PPG
1.32
72.7%
Win rate
40.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
12.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
48.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
81.8%
Over 3.5 rate
64.0%
2.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
11
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.55
Goals for per game
1.61
90.9%
Scoring rate
79.6%
68.2%
BTTS rate
61.2%
3.45
Goals for per game
1.84
90.9%
Scoring rate
84.0%
72.7%
BTTS rate
68.0%
2.55
Goals for per game
2.05
90.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
65.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
22
History Matches
49
2.55
Goals Mean
1.61
1.95
Goals Std
1.44
90.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
68.2%
Scored 2+ rate
38.8%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
3.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.92
68.2%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
2.12
72.7%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.80
65.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
22
History Matches
49
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.11
Conceded Std
1.63
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.7%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
49
0.83
Result entropy
0.93
2.38
Goal Difference Std
2.48
17.39
Stability score
6.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
49
9
Lead Matches
15
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.91
4
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.79
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
10
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
2.10
PPG
1.60
65.0%
Win rate
45.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
20
Current Competition Matches
20
2.10
Current Competition PPG
1.60
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.23
—
Portability PPG Range
0.46
—
Portability Score
68.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO67.29
PPG0.76
GF0.93
GA-0.74
PPG0.50
PPG0.95
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-27
Goals Mean0.93
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate11.3%
Scored 2+ rate29.4%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches-27
Conceded Mean-0.74
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-27
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score10.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-27
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-27
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.15
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match1.12
Current Team ELO67.29
Current Opponent ELO-67.29
Current ELO Difference134.6
Expected score0.19
History Matches-27
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance9.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rodina Moscow U19

W
Rodina Moscow U192–1Chertanovo U2030 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moscow U19 81% · hit
W
Rodina Moscow U195–1Fakel U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moscow U19 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Akademiya Konoplev U20

L
Akademiya Konoplev U200–1Spartak Moskva U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Akademiya Konoplev U20 47% · missed
W
Akademiya Konoplev U203–2Dynamo Makhachkala U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Akademiya Konoplev U20 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rodina Moscow U19 and Akademiya Konoplev U20 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Sapsan Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Rodina Moscow U19 win 61.2%, draw 17.8%, Akademiya Konoplev U20 win 20.9%. The pick is Rodina Moscow U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%. Both teams to score: 64.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.