ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 19 2026

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

Águilas Doradas Home · Elo 1,524
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Independiente Medellin Away · Elo 1,555
Estadio Cincuentenario Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente Medellin win
Águilas Doradas win
33.3%
Draw
30.2%
Independiente Medellin winPick
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.1%
Under 2.552.9%

How much we know

Águilas Doradas history60 matches
Independiente Medellin history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.

Why Independiente Medellin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independiente Medellin are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,524. On rating alone Independiente Medellin would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 60 matches for Águilas Doradas, against 1.23 over 73 for Independiente Medellin.

  • Independiente Medellin concede fewer

    Águilas Doradas concede 1.32 a game, Independiente Medellin 0.97.

  • Águilas Doradas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Águilas Doradas matches, against 40% for Independiente Medellin. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Águilas Doradas
Independiente Medellin@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.6
ELO
1555.1
60
ELO · Matches
73
1523.6
Current Team ELO
1555.1
1555.1
Current Opponent ELO
1523.6
-31.53
Current ELO Difference
31.53
0.45
Expected score
0.55
60
History Matches
73
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.29
Overperformance
52.60
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
73
1.30
PPG
1.56
31.7%
Win rate
41.1%
35.0%
Draw rate
32.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
26.0%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
39.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
38
1.38
PPG
1.37
34.5%
Win rate
34.2%
34.5%
Draw rate
34.2%
31.0%
Loss rate
31.6%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
29
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.23
73.3%
Scoring rate
75.3%
61.7%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.03
82.8%
Scoring rate
65.8%
72.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.37
77.3%
Scoring rate
84.2%
63.6%
BTTS rate
63.2%
60
History Matches
73
1.22
Goals Mean
1.23
1.05
Goals Std
0.99
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.3%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
0.97
78.3%
Conceding rate
67.1%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.05
82.8%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.37
81.8%
Conceding rate
73.7%
60
History Matches
73
1.32
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.04
Conceded Std
0.88
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.7%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.1%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
73
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.24
0.08
Stability score
1.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
71
11
Lead Matches
17
36.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
18
36.8%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.02
Rest days
81.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
19
1.50
PPG
1.32
40.9%
Win rate
36.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
21.1%
31.8%
Loss rate
42.1%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
22
Current Competition Matches
19
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.32
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.68
79.04
Portability Score
69.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-31.53
PPG-0.26
GF-0.02
GA0.34
PPG0.18
PPG0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-1.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.52
Lead Points Retention-0.44
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score9.34
Rest days0.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-31.53
Current Opponent ELO31.53
Current ELO Difference-63.06
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Águilas Doradas

W
Águilas Doradas1–0Fortaleza FC2 Nov · home
Pick: Águilas Doradas 43% · hit
W
Cucuta0–2Águilas Doradas27 Oct · away
Pick: Cucuta 45% · missed
L
Junior1–0Águilas Doradas24 Oct · away
Pick: Junior 48% · hit
W
Águilas Doradas2–1Deportes Tolima18 Oct · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 39% · missed
D
Bucaramanga1–1Águilas Doradas13 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · missed

Independiente Medellin

W
Independiente Medellin2–1Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · home
Pick: Independiente Medellin 54% · hit
L
Internacional de Bogota3–1Independiente Medellin29 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente Medellin 43% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional2–1Independiente Medellin25 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 59% · hit
L
Independiente Medellin0–2Once Caldas18 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 37% · hit
L
Atletico Nacional3–2Independiente Medellin15 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 58% · hit

About this match

Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Cincuentenario. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Águilas Doradas win 33.3%, draw 30.2%, Independiente Medellin win 36.6%. The pick is Independiente Medellin win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.1%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.