Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Match result probability Model pick: Bucaramanga win
Bucaramanga winPick
47.0%
Draw
29.5%
Fortaleza FC win
23.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.6%
No50.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
How much we know
Bucaramanga history70 matches
Fortaleza FC history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bucaramanga
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Bucaramanga are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bucaramanga are rated 45 Elo points higher
Elo 1,520 against 1,475. On rating alone Bucaramanga would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Bucaramanga score more
1.30 goals a game over 70 matches for Bucaramanga, against 0.95 over 62 for Fortaleza FC.
-
Bucaramanga concede fewer
Bucaramanga concede 1.07 a game, Fortaleza FC 1.27.
-
Bucaramanga games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of Bucaramanga matches, against 39% for Fortaleza FC. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortaleza FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1519.9
ELO
1474.9
70
ELO · Matches
62
1519.9
Current Team ELO
1474.9
1474.9
Current Opponent ELO
1519.9
45.07
Current ELO Difference
-45.07
0.56
Expected score
0.44
70
History Matches
62
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.59
Overperformance
48.34
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
70
Matches
62
1.49
PPG
1.15
38.6%
Win rate
27.4%
32.9%
Draw rate
32.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
40.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
32
1.67
PPG
0.63
42.4%
Win rate
9.4%
39.4%
Draw rate
34.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
56.3%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
33
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.30
Goals for per game
0.95
70.0%
Scoring rate
66.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.75
69.7%
Scoring rate
56.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.21
70.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
70
History Matches
62
1.30
Goals Mean
0.95
1.25
Goals Std
0.85
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
25.8%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
1.6%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.27
62.9%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.59
57.6%
Conceding rate
78.1%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.42
70.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
70
History Matches
62
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.05
Conceded Std
1.19
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
70
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.42
0.69
Stability score
1.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
69
Eligible Matches
62
22
Lead Matches
13
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
20
20.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.00
Rest days
81.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
25
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
19
1.25
PPG
1.21
25.0%
Win rate
31.6%
50.0%
Draw rate
26.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
20
Current Competition Matches
19
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.21
0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.21
9
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.09
Portability PPG Range
0.47
55.20
Portability Score
74.90
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
70
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO45.07
PPG0.34
GF0.35
GA-0.20
PPG0.04
PPG1.04
PPG0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate9.9%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate32.5%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.31
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-19.70
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO45.07
Current Opponent ELO-45.07
Current ELO Difference90.15
Expected score0.13
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bucaramanga
D
Bucaramanga1–1Atletico Nacional3 Nov · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 42% · missed W
Bucaramanga2–1Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · home
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · hit L
Santa Fe2–1Bucaramanga27 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 49% · hit L
Chico1–0Bucaramanga23 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 49% · missed D
Bucaramanga1–1America de Cali18 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 38% · missed Fortaleza FC
L
Águilas Doradas1–0Fortaleza FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Águilas Doradas 43% · hit D
Fortaleza FC1–1Deportivo Cali25 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza FC 35% · missed D
Deportivo Pasto0–0Fortaleza FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 42% · missed D
Chico0–0Fortaleza FC26 Aug · away
Pick: Fortaleza FC 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Bucaramanga win 47.0%, draw 29.5%, Fortaleza FC win 23.5%. The pick is Bucaramanga win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.