ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 19 2026

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima

Deportivo Cali Home · Elo 1,537
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportes Tolima Away · Elo 1,550
Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Cali win
Deportivo Cali winPick
36.6%
Draw
31.9%
Deportes Tolima win
31.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.7%
No54.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%

How much we know

Deportivo Cali history53 matches
Deportes Tolima history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.

Why Deportivo Cali are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,550. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 53 matches for Deportivo Cali, against 1.19 over 77 for Deportes Tolima.

  • Defences are close

    Deportivo Cali concede 1.00 a game, Deportes Tolima 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Deportivo Cali matches, against 40% for Deportes Tolima. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Cali
Deportes Tolima@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.5
ELO
1550.1
53
ELO · Matches
77
1537.5
Current Team ELO
1550.1
1550.1
Current Opponent ELO
1537.5
-12.56
Current ELO Difference
12.56
0.48
Expected score
0.52
53
History Matches
77
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.06
Overperformance
52.85
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.40
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
77
1.40
PPG
1.51
37.7%
Win rate
42.9%
26.4%
Draw rate
22.1%
35.8%
Loss rate
35.1%
64.2%
Over 1.5 rate
59.7%
35.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
37
1.71
PPG
1.16
46.4%
Win rate
29.7%
32.1%
Draw rate
27.0%
21.4%
Loss rate
43.2%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
28
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.19
62.3%
Scoring rate
64.9%
39.6%
BTTS rate
39.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.97
67.9%
Scoring rate
59.5%
39.3%
BTTS rate
40.5%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.31
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.1%
38.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
77
1.15
Goals Mean
1.19
1.19
Goals Std
1.11
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
64.9%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.95
64.2%
Conceding rate
59.7%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.22
57.1%
Conceding rate
64.9%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.00
61.9%
Conceding rate
65.4%
53
History Matches
77
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.95
0.95
Conceded Std
1.02
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.1%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
77
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.47
1.04
Stability score
3.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
77
17
Lead Matches
24
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
19
23.1%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.91
Rest days
82.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
8
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
26
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
26
1.43
PPG
1.58
38.1%
Win rate
42.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
26.9%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
21
Current Competition Matches
26
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.58
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.31
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.18
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.43
38.24
Portability Score
73.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-12.56
PPG-0.11
GF-0.04
GA0.05
PPG-0.15
PPG0.55
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-2.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate9.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-5
Current Competition PPG-0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.02
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.63
Portability PPG Range1.57
Portability Score-35.12
Rest days-1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Current Team ELO-12.56
Current Opponent ELO12.56
Current ELO Difference-25.12
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-24
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Cali

D
Fortaleza FC1–1Deportivo Cali25 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza FC 35% · missed
W
Llaneros0–3Deportivo Cali21 Oct · away
Pick: Llaneros 39% · missed
D
Deportivo Cali0–0Junior19 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 45% · missed
W
Deportivo Cali2–0Águilas Doradas28 Sep · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 48% · hit
D
Deportivo Cali1–1Bucaramanga31 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 44% · missed

Deportes Tolima

W
Deportivo Pereira1–3Deportes Tolima3 Nov · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 43% · hit
L
Deportes Tolima0–1Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 54% · missed
L
Águilas Doradas2–1Deportes Tolima18 Oct · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 39% · missed
W
Deportes Tolima2–1Cucuta1 Sep · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 57% · hit
L
Independiente del Valle3–1Deportes Tolima26 Aug · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · hit

About this match

Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Deportivo Cali win 36.6%, draw 31.9%, Deportes Tolima win 31.5%. The pick is Deportivo Cali win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.0%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.