Cucuta vs Jaguares
Match result probability Model pick: Cucuta win
Cucuta winPick
48.9%
Draw
28.0%
Jaguares win
23.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.5%
No49.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%
How much we know
Cucuta history67 matches
Jaguares history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cucuta
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Cucuta are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,518 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.31 goals a game over 67 matches for Cucuta, against 1.27 over 56 for Jaguares.
-
Jaguares concede fewer
Cucuta concede 1.21 a game, Jaguares 1.04.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Cucuta matches, against 45% for Jaguares. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jaguares@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1517.7
ELO
1509.9
67
ELO · Matches
56
1517.7
Current Team ELO
1509.9
1509.9
Current Opponent ELO
1517.7
7.74
Current ELO Difference
-7.74
0.51
Expected score
0.49
67
History Matches
56
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.59
Overperformance
50.19
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
56
1.55
PPG
1.64
40.3%
Win rate
48.2%
34.3%
Draw rate
19.6%
25.4%
Loss rate
32.1%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
29
1.89
PPG
1.31
51.4%
Win rate
34.5%
35.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
13.5%
Loss rate
37.9%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
55.2%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
37
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.27
77.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.00
86.5%
Scoring rate
58.6%
59.5%
BTTS rate
37.9%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.82
77.3%
Scoring rate
58.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
35.3%
67
History Matches
56
1.31
Goals Mean
1.27
1.03
Goals Std
0.99
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.7%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.04
67.2%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.24
64.9%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.76
81.8%
Conceding rate
76.5%
67
History Matches
56
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.18
Conceded Std
1.12
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.60
1.58
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
67
Eligible Matches
56
22
Lead Matches
18
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.93
14
Trailing Matches
12
35.7%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
81.82
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
22
Matches
17
0.95
PPG
0.82
18.2%
Win rate
23.5%
40.9%
Draw rate
11.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
64.7%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
22
Current Competition Matches
17
0.95
Current Competition PPG
0.82
-0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.94
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.28
Portability PPG Range
1.29
47.20
Portability Score
46.67
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.74
PPG-0.09
GF0.05
GA0.17
PPG0.13
PPG0.58
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches11
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-4.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate27.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches5
Current Competition PPG0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.26
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score0.53
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO7.74
Current Opponent ELO-7.74
Current ELO Difference15.48
Expected score0.02
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cucuta
W
Cucuta1–0Santa Fe4 Nov · home
Pick: Santa Fe 45% · missed L
Cucuta0–2Águilas Doradas27 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 45% · missed L
America de Cali3–1Cucuta24 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 63% · hit W
Cucuta1–0Atletico Nacional20 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 51% · missed W
Cucuta4–0Deportivo Pereira4 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 47% · hit Jaguares
L
Deportivo Pasto2–0Jaguares3 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 48% · hit L
Deportivo Pereira1–0Jaguares30 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 44% · hit W
Jaguares1–0Llaneros26 Oct · home
Pick: Jaguares 44% · hit D
Jaguares2–2America de Cali29 Aug · home
Pick: America de Cali 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Cucuta and Jaguares meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio General Santander. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Cucuta win 48.9%, draw 28.0%, Jaguares win 23.1%. The pick is Cucuta win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.