ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 19 2026

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

Atletico Nacional Home · Elo 1,631
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Once Caldas Away · Elo 1,579
Estadio Atanasio Girardot Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Nacional win
Atletico Nacional winPick
56.2%
Draw
25.3%
Once Caldas win
18.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%

How much we know

Atletico Nacional history84 matches
Once Caldas history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.

Why Atletico Nacional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Nacional are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,579. On rating alone Atletico Nacional would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Atletico Nacional score more

    1.67 goals a game over 84 matches for Atletico Nacional, against 1.39 over 72 for Once Caldas.

  • Defences are close

    Atletico Nacional concede 0.90 a game, Once Caldas 0.93.

  • Atletico Nacional games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Atletico Nacional matches, against 43% for Once Caldas. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.7
ELO
1578.9
84
ELO · Matches
72
1630.7
Current Team ELO
1578.9
1578.9
Current Opponent ELO
1630.7
51.84
Current ELO Difference
-51.84
0.57
Expected score
0.43
84
History Matches
72
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
56.15
Overperformance
53.81
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
72
1.82
PPG
1.61
53.6%
Win rate
43.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
31.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
70.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
38
2.12
PPG
1.34
64.3%
Win rate
28.9%
19.0%
Draw rate
47.4%
16.7%
Loss rate
23.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
42
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.39
77.4%
Scoring rate
72.2%
44.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.13
85.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
40.5%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.57
73.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
38.5%
BTTS rate
76.2%
84
History Matches
72
1.67
Goals Mean
1.39
1.38
Goals Std
1.30
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
0.93
58.3%
Conceding rate
63.9%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.08
45.2%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.10
61.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
84
History Matches
72
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.95
Conceded Std
0.87
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.8%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
72
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.67
7.97
Stability score
2.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
72
33
Lead Matches
23
78.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
20
Trailing Matches
10
45.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.08
Rest days
80.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.71
47
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
21
2.23
PPG
1.43
73.1%
Win rate
28.6%
3.8%
Draw rate
57.1%
23.1%
Loss rate
14.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
26
Current Competition Matches
21
2.23
Current Competition PPG
1.43
1.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.48
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.85
59.07
Portability Score
59.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO51.84
PPG0.21
GF0.28
GA-0.03
PPG0.80
PPG0.78
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate5.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score5.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches5
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.72
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.14
Rest days0.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.79
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO51.84
Current Opponent ELO-51.84
Current ELO Difference103.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Nacional

D
Bucaramanga1–1Atletico Nacional3 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 42% · missed
W
Atletico Nacional2–0Santa Fe30 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 50% · hit
W
Atletico Nacional2–1Independiente Medellin25 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 59% · hit
W
Atletico Nacional3–0Deportivo Pasto23 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
L
Cucuta1–0Atletico Nacional20 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 51% · missed

Once Caldas

W
Santa Fe0–2Once Caldas2 Nov · away
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · missed
W
Once Caldas1–0Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 59% · hit
D
Once Caldas1–1Deportivo Pereira25 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 58% · missed
D
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas21 Oct · away
Pick: Millonarios 49% · missed
W
Independiente Medellin0–2Once Caldas18 Oct · away
Pick: Once Caldas 37% · hit

About this match

Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Atletico Nacional win 56.2%, draw 25.3%, Once Caldas win 18.5%. The pick is Atletico Nacional win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.0%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.