ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 19 2026

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

Deportivo Pasto Home · Elo 1,470
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Junior Away · Elo 1,522
Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Pasto win
Deportivo Pasto winPick
38.6%
Draw
24.6%
Junior win
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Deportivo Pasto history57 matches
Junior history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.

Why Deportivo Pasto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Junior are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,522 against 1,470. On rating alone Junior would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 57 matches for Deportivo Pasto, against 1.22 over 72 for Junior.

  • Defences are close

    Deportivo Pasto concede 1.28 a game, Junior 1.22.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Deportivo Pasto matches, against 46% for Junior. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Pasto
Junior@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.5
ELO
1522.2
57
ELO · Matches
72
1470.5
Current Team ELO
1522.2
1522.2
Current Opponent ELO
1470.5
-51.73
Current ELO Difference
51.73
0.43
Expected score
0.57
57
History Matches
72
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.93
Overperformance
50.36
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
72
1.28
PPG
1.39
36.8%
Win rate
36.1%
17.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
45.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.4%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
40
1.82
PPG
1.30
57.1%
Win rate
35.0%
10.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
28
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.22
63.2%
Scoring rate
76.4%
42.1%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.08
78.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.25
65.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
45.0%
BTTS rate
54.2%
57
History Matches
72
1.18
Goals Mean
1.22
1.13
Goals Std
0.95
63.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
36.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.22
75.4%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.28
64.3%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.21
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
57
History Matches
72
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.97
Conceded Std
0.97
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.9%
8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
72
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.43
6.13
Stability score
0.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
72
20
Lead Matches
26
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
21
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.00
Rest days
80.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
28
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
24
1.50
PPG
1.38
45.0%
Win rate
37.5%
15.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
20
Current Competition Matches
24
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.38
-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.04
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.02
61.89
Portability Score
56.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-51.73
PPG-0.11
GF-0.05
GA0.06
PPG0.13
PPG0.52
PPG0.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate3.5%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score5.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate10.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score5.36
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-51.73
Current Opponent ELO51.73
Current ELO Difference-103.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Pasto

W
Deportivo Pasto2–0Jaguares3 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 48% · hit
L
Bucaramanga2–1Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · hit
W
Deportes Tolima0–1Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 54% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional3–0Deportivo Pasto23 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
L
Deportivo Pasto0–1Alianza Valledupar20 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 50% · missed

Junior

L
Llaneros3–2Junior31 Oct · away
Pick: Llaneros 38% · hit
D
Chico1–1Junior28 Oct · away
Pick: Junior 47% · missed
W
Junior1–0Águilas Doradas24 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 48% · hit
D
Deportivo Cali0–0Junior19 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Cali 45% · missed
D
Junior1–1Deportivo Pereira14 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 52% · missed

About this match

Deportivo Pasto and Junior meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Deportivo Pasto win 38.6%, draw 24.6%, Junior win 36.8%. The pick is Deportivo Pasto win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.