ScoreProb
Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21

Albania U21 Home · Elo 1,512
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Luxembourg U21 Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Albania U21 win
Albania U21 winPick
57.4%
Draw
23.0%
Luxembourg U21 win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Albania U21 history7 matches
Luxembourg U21 history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Albania U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Albania U21 are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,473. On rating alone Albania U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Albania U21 score more

    1.43 goals a game over 7 matches for Albania U21, against 1.00 over 7 for Luxembourg U21.

  • Albania U21 concede fewer

    Albania U21 concede 1.00 a game, Luxembourg U21 2.00.

  • Luxembourg U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Albania U21 matches, against 71% for Luxembourg U21. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albania U21
Luxembourg U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.8
ELO
1472.7
7
ELO · Matches
7
1511.8
Current Team ELO
1472.7
1472.7
Current Opponent ELO
1511.8
39.14
Current ELO Difference
-39.14
0.56
Expected score
0.44
7
History Matches
7
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.18
51.86
Overperformance
45.30
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
7
Matches
7
1.57
PPG
0.71
1.43
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
42.9%
Win rate
14.3%
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.76
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
7
1.57
PPG
0.71
42.9%
Win rate
14.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.67
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
7
History Matches
7
1.43
Goals Mean
1.00
1.18
Goals Std
0.76
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
85.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
7
History Matches
7
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.53
Conceded Std
1.51
14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
7
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.18
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.79
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
7
4
Lead Matches
0
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
1
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.96
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
0
Normal Rest History Matches
2
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
4
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
3
Matches
1
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO39.14
PPG0.86
GF0.43
GA-1.00
PPG0.33
PPG2.33
PPG0.80
PPG0.86
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate14.3%
Scored 3+ rate28.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Std0.42
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-1.00
Conceded Std-0.98
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.43
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.98
History Matches0
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-11.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches4
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-79.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO39.14
Current Opponent ELO-39.14
Current ELO Difference78.27
Expected score0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.25
Overperformance6.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albania U21

D
Ukraine U212–2Albania U215 Oct · away
Pick: Albania U21 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Luxembourg U21

W
Luxembourg U213–0Estonia U216 Oct · home
Pick: Luxembourg U21 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Albania U21 and Luxembourg U21 meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Albania U21 win 57.4%, draw 23.0%, Luxembourg U21 win 19.6%. The pick is Albania U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.