Qatar vs Australia
Match result probability Model pick: Australia win
Qatar win
34.2%
Draw
28.2%
Australia winPick
37.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.2%
No53.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%
How much we know
Qatar history18 matches
Australia history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Australia
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 14:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Australia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Australia are rated 98 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,441. On rating alone Australia would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Australia score far more
0.89 goals a game over 18 matches for Qatar, against 1.47 over 17 for Australia.
-
Australia concede fewer
Qatar concede 1.83 a game, Australia 0.88.
-
Qatar games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Qatar matches, against 35% for Australia. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 4 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Australia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1440.6
ELO
1538.8
18
ELO · Matches
17
1440.6
Current Team ELO
1538.8
1538.8
Current Opponent ELO
1440.6
-98.21
Current ELO Difference
98.21
0.36
Expected score
0.64
18
History Matches
17
-0.14
Residual Mean
0.10
43.26
Overperformance
54.49
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
18
Matches
17
0.78
PPG
1.76
16.7%
Win rate
52.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
17.6%
55.6%
Loss rate
29.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
10
1.09
PPG
1.10
27.3%
Win rate
30.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
45.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
11
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.89
Goals for per game
1.47
55.6%
Scoring rate
70.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.18
Goals for per game
0.90
63.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
18
History Matches
17
0.89
Goals Mean
1.47
1.20
Goals Std
1.54
55.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.83
Goals against per game
0.88
83.3%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.20
81.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
18
History Matches
17
1.83
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.54
Conceded Std
0.83
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.6%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
18
History Matches
17
0.89
Result entropy
0.91
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.85
10.71
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
17
2
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
5
11.1%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
141.8
Rest days
132.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
8
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
8
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.84
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.80
45.86
Portability Score
37.40
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
18
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-98.21
PPG-0.99
GF-0.58
GA0.95
PPG0.00
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate15.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.82
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.95
Conceded Std0.70
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate27.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score8.46
Rest days8.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-98.21
Current Opponent ELO98.21
Current ELO Difference-196.4
Expected score-0.28
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-11.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Qatar and Australia meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 14:45 UTC. The match is played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Qatar win 34.2%, draw 28.2%, Australia win 37.6%. The pick is Australia win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.