Germany U21 vs Belgium U21
Match result probability Model pick: Germany U21 win
Germany U21 winPick
61.0%
Draw
18.8%
Belgium U21 win
20.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.0%
No53.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
How much we know
Germany U21 history13 matches
Belgium U21 history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Germany U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Germany U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Germany U21 are rated 66 Elo points higher
Elo 1,578 against 1,512. On rating alone Germany U21 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Germany U21 score more
2.92 goals a game over 13 matches for Germany U21, against 2.00 over 6 for Belgium U21.
-
Belgium U21 concede fewer
Germany U21 concede 0.85 a game, Belgium U21 0.67.
-
Germany U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals
85% of Germany U21 matches, against 33% for Belgium U21. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belgium U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1578.5
ELO
1512.0
13
ELO · Matches
6
1578.5
Current Team ELO
1512.0
1512.0
Current Opponent ELO
1578.5
66.42
Current ELO Difference
-66.42
0.59
Expected score
0.41
13
History Matches
6
0.31
Residual Mean
0.07
62.10
Overperformance
51.59
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
3.00
Goals for per game
2.20
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
6
2.30
PPG
1.67
2.90
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.67
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.31
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.67
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.75
Overall performance9 signals 90
13
Matches
6
2.46
PPG
1.67
76.9%
Win rate
50.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
7.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
4
2.29
PPG
1.00
71.4%
Win rate
25.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.34
7
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.92
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
46.2%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3.43
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
13
History Matches
6
2.92
Goals Mean
2.00
1.27
Goals Std
2.31
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
46.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
3.43
Venue Goals Mean
2.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.85
Goals against per game
0.67
46.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.00
28.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
13
History Matches
6
0.85
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.03
Conceded Std
0.75
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
71.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
71.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
13
History Matches
6
0.63
Result entropy
0.92
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.75
37.46
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
6
9
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
3
Trailing Matches
1
66.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
1.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
227.0
Rest days
228.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
1
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Long Rest History Matches
3
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.12
Portability PPG Std
—
0.24
Portability PPG Range
—
80.77
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
13
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO66.42
PPG0.79
GF0.92
GA0.18
PPG1.29
PPG1.20
PPG0.63
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate46.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.92
Goals Std-1.04
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate66.7%
Scored 3+ rate29.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.85
Stability score29.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO66.42
Current Opponent ELO-66.42
Current ELO Difference132.8
Expected score0.19
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance10.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Germany U21
W
Germany U212–0Georgia U216 Oct · home
Pick: Germany U21 70% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Belgium U21
D
Denmark U210–0Belgium U216 Oct · away
Pick: Belgium U21 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Germany U21 and Belgium U21 meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Germany U21 win 61.0%, draw 18.8%, Belgium U21 win 20.1%. The pick is Germany U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.