United Arab Emirates vs Honduras
Match result probability Model pick: United Arab Emirates win
United Arab Emirates winPick
43.9%
Draw
31.1%
Honduras win
25.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.9%
No55.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%
How much we know
United Arab Emirates history15 matches
Honduras history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours United Arab Emirates
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why United Arab Emirates are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,504 against 1,524. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
United Arab Emirates score more
1.20 goals a game over 15 matches for United Arab Emirates, against 1.07 over 15 for Honduras.
-
Honduras concede fewer
United Arab Emirates concede 1.27 a game, Honduras 0.93.
-
United Arab Emirates games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of United Arab Emirates matches, against 27% for Honduras. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Honduras@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1504.4
ELO
1524.3
15
ELO · Matches
15
1504.4
Current Team ELO
1524.3
1524.3
Current Opponent ELO
1504.4
-19.95
Current ELO Difference
19.95
0.47
Expected score
0.53
15
History Matches
15
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.41
Overperformance
53.19
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals 90
15
Matches
15
1.33
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
46.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
8
2.14
PPG
0.75
57.1%
Win rate
12.5%
42.9%
Draw rate
37.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
7
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.07
80.0%
Scoring rate
53.3%
73.3%
BTTS rate
13.3%
1.57
Goals for per game
0.38
85.7%
Scoring rate
25.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
12.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
50.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
15
History Matches
15
1.20
Goals Mean
1.07
0.91
Goals Std
1.06
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
53.3%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
0.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.27
Goals against per game
0.93
86.7%
Conceding rate
40.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.63
71.4%
Conceding rate
62.5%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
15
History Matches
15
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.77
Conceded Std
1.57
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
15
History Matches
15
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.34
Goal Difference Std
2.19
0.00
Stability score
3.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
15
Eligible Matches
15
3
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
3
40.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
332.9
Rest days
159.5
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.60
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
0.50
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
50.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
0.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.38
88.89
Portability Score
72.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
15
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-19.95
PPG-0.33
GF0.13
GA0.33
PPG1.39
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.47
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.61
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate26.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.80
Clean-sheet rate-0.47
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.85
Stability score-3.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate40.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score16.16
Rest days173.4
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO-19.95
Current Opponent ELO19.95
Current ELO Difference-39.89
Expected score-0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
United Arab Emirates
No earlier results with our pick yet
Honduras
D
Honduras1–1Jamaica6 Oct · home
Pick: Jamaica 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
United Arab Emirates and Honduras meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: United Arab Emirates win 43.9%, draw 31.1%, Honduras win 25.0%. The pick is United Arab Emirates win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.