Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyzstan
Match result probability Model pick: Kyrgyzstan win
Chinese Taipei win
23.6%
Draw
19.1%
Kyrgyzstan winPick
57.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
No44.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.4%
Under 2.534.6%
How much we know
Chinese Taipei history7 matches
Kyrgyzstan history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kyrgyzstan
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.3%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Kyrgyzstan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,438 against 1,459. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Kyrgyzstan score more
0.71 goals a game over 7 matches for Chinese Taipei, against 0.91 over 11 for Kyrgyzstan.
-
Kyrgyzstan concede fewer
Chinese Taipei concede 3.57 a game, Kyrgyzstan 1.64.
-
Chinese Taipei games more often go over 2.5 goals
86% of Chinese Taipei matches, against 45% for Kyrgyzstan. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kyrgyzstan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1437.9
ELO
1459.4
7
ELO · Matches
11
1437.9
Current Team ELO
1459.4
1459.4
Current Opponent ELO
1437.9
-21.49
Current ELO Difference
21.49
0.47
Expected score
0.53
7
History Matches
11
-0.46
Residual Mean
-0.16
38.19
Overperformance
44.36
-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
4.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
7
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.71
Goals for per game
1.00
3.57
Goals against per game
1.70
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
3.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.59
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
7
Matches
11
0.00
PPG
0.73
0.0%
Win rate
9.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
100.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
3
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.71
Goals for per game
0.91
71.4%
Scoring rate
54.5%
71.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
0.50
—
Scoring rate
25.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
7
History Matches
11
0.71
Goals Mean
0.91
0.45
Goals Std
1.00
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
3.57
Goals against per game
1.64
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
3.67
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.50
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
7
History Matches
11
3.57
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.59
Conceded Std
1.49
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
71.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
3.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
7
History Matches
11
0.00
Result entropy
0.85
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.54
100.0
Stability score
14.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
7
Eligible Matches
11
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.50
3
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
1.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
2.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
227.1
Rest days
156.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
1
Normal Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
5
Long Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
0.50
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
50.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
0.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.40
—
Portability PPG Range
0.92
—
Portability Score
55.64
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
7
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-21.49
PPG-0.73
GF-0.19
GA1.94
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate16.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean1.94
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate63.6%
Conceded 3+ rate53.2%
Venue Conceded Mean1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.85
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score85.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.42
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days70.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-21.49
Current Opponent ELO21.49
Current ELO Difference-42.97
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.30
Overperformance-6.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chinese Taipei
No earlier results with our pick yet
Kyrgyzstan
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Chinese Taipei and Kyrgyzstan meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Chinese Taipei win 23.6%, draw 19.1%, Kyrgyzstan win 57.3%. The pick is Kyrgyzstan win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.4%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.