ScoreProb
Log in
J2 League Japan Round 17 2026

Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Albirex Niigata Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tegevajaro Miyazaki Away · Elo 1,619
Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win
Albirex Niigata win
27.9%
Draw
31.6%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Albirex Niigata history67 matches
Tegevajaro Miyazaki history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Tegevajaro Miyazaki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki are rated 158 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,461. On rating alone Tegevajaro Miyazaki would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 67 matches for Albirex Niigata, against 1.63 over 65 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki.

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki concede fewer

    Albirex Niigata concede 1.42 a game, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Albirex Niigata matches, against 49% for Tegevajaro Miyazaki. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albirex Niigata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.4
ELO
1619.2
67
ELO · Matches
65
1461.4
Current Team ELO
1619.2
1619.2
Current Opponent ELO
1461.4
-157.7
Current ELO Difference
157.7
0.29
Expected score
0.71
67
History Matches
65
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
48.48
Overperformance
56.89
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
65
1.03
PPG
1.95
23.9%
Win rate
56.9%
31.3%
Draw rate
24.6%
44.8%
Loss rate
18.5%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
1.22
PPG
1.91
27.8%
Win rate
56.3%
38.9%
Draw rate
21.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
21.9%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.63
67.2%
Scoring rate
81.5%
50.7%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.69
69.4%
Scoring rate
81.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.65
65.2%
Scoring rate
82.6%
34.8%
BTTS rate
39.1%
67
History Matches
65
1.00
Goals Mean
1.63
0.86
Goals Std
1.27
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
28.4%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
4.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
0.94
71.6%
Conceding rate
64.6%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.97
69.4%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.83
Goals against per game
0.65
47.8%
Conceding rate
52.2%
67
History Matches
65
1.42
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.26
Conceded Std
0.86
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.6%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.36
3.02
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
10
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.97
25
Trailing Matches
9
16.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.79
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.74
PPG
2.26
47.8%
Win rate
69.6%
30.4%
Draw rate
17.4%
21.7%
Loss rate
13.0%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.74
Current Competition PPG
2.26
0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.44
52.22
Portability Score
69.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-157.7
PPG-0.92
GF-0.63
GA0.48
PPG-0.52
PPG-0.68
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches2
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-7.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.78
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-17.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Current Team ELO-157.7
Current Opponent ELO157.7
Current ELO Difference-315.4
Expected score-0.43
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albirex Niigata

W
Albirex Niigata1–0Imabari7 Nov · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata 50% · hit
W
Ventforet Kofu0–1Albirex Niigata3 Nov · away
Pick: Ventforet Kofu 41% · missed
L
Albirex Niigata2–3Kataller Toyama31 Oct · home
Pick: Kataller Toyama 42% · hit
W
Albirex Niigata2–1Vegalta Sendai25 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 41% · missed
W
Albirex Niigata2–1Sagan Tosu21 Oct · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata 40% · hit

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

W
Tokushima Vortis1–2Tegevajaro Miyazaki7 Nov · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 40% · hit
W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki3–0Tochigi City3 Nov · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0Oita Trinita31 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
W
Montedio Yamagata0–2Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43% · hit
W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–1Blaublitz Akita21 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 53% · hit

About this match

Albirex Niigata and Tegevajaro Miyazaki meet in J2 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Albirex Niigata win 27.9%, draw 31.6%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 40.5%. The pick is Tegevajaro Miyazaki win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 46.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.