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J2 League Japan Round 17 2026

Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata

Omiya Ardija Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Montedio Yamagata Away · Elo 1,488
NACK5 Stadium Omiya, Saitama Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Omiya Ardija win
Omiya Ardija winPick
49.6%
Draw
24.5%
Montedio Yamagata win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

Omiya Ardija history69 matches
Montedio Yamagata history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Omiya Ardija are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Omiya Ardija are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,488. On rating alone Omiya Ardija would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Omiya Ardija score more

    1.77 goals a game over 69 matches for Omiya Ardija, against 1.42 over 67 for Montedio Yamagata.

  • Defences are close

    Omiya Ardija concede 1.28 a game, Montedio Yamagata 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Omiya Ardija matches, against 60% for Montedio Yamagata. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Omiya Ardija
Montedio Yamagata@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.4
ELO
1488.2
69
ELO · Matches
67
1536.4
Current Team ELO
1488.2
1488.2
Current Opponent ELO
1536.4
48.15
Current ELO Difference
-48.15
0.57
Expected score
0.43
69
History Matches
67
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.23
Overperformance
49.45
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.61
PPG
1.34
46.4%
Win rate
38.8%
21.7%
Draw rate
17.9%
31.9%
Loss rate
43.3%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
63.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
33
1.64
PPG
1.27
47.2%
Win rate
36.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
18.2%
30.6%
Loss rate
45.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
36
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.42
85.5%
Scoring rate
74.6%
60.9%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.39
88.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.09
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
82.6%
BTTS rate
47.8%
69
History Matches
67
1.77
Goals Mean
1.42
1.25
Goals Std
1.11
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
23.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.37
71.0%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.45
66.7%
Conceding rate
87.9%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.22
82.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
69
History Matches
67
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.09
Conceded Std
1.00
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.38
4.19
Stability score
5.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
28
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
67.9%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
12
15.4%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.78
PPG
1.17
56.5%
Win rate
34.8%
8.7%
Draw rate
13.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.78
Current Competition PPG
1.17
0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.13
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.22
85.67
Portability Score
84.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO48.15
PPG0.27
GF0.35
GA-0.10
PPG0.61
PPG0.37
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate21.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-1.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.78
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score1.37
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO48.15
Current Opponent ELO-48.15
Current ELO Difference96.31
Expected score0.14
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Omiya Ardija

W
Omiya Ardija2–1Iwaki3 Nov · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 50% · hit
W
Vegalta Sendai1–2Omiya Ardija31 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 40% · missed
D
Omiya Ardija2–2Yokohama FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 44% · missed
L
Omiya Ardija0–3Kataller Toyama21 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 42% · missed
L
Sagan Tosu2–1Omiya Ardija17 Oct · away
Pick: Sagan Tosu 38% · hit

Montedio Yamagata

L
Iwaki2–0Montedio Yamagata7 Nov · away
Pick: Iwaki 38% · hit
W
Montedio Yamagata1–0Tokushima Vortis3 Nov · home
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 40% · missed
W
Vanraure Hachinohe1–2Montedio Yamagata31 Oct · away
Pick: Vanraure Hachinohe 43% · missed
L
Montedio Yamagata0–2Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43% · hit
L
Montedio Yamagata0–2Consadole Sapporo21 Oct · home
Pick: Montedio Yamagata 44% · missed

About this match

Omiya Ardija and Montedio Yamagata meet in J2 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at NACK5 Stadium Omiya, Saitama. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Omiya Ardija win 49.6%, draw 24.5%, Montedio Yamagata win 25.9%. The pick is Omiya Ardija win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.