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J2 League Japan Round 17 2026

Oita Trinita vs Tochigi City

Oita Trinita Home · Elo 1,458
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tochigi City Away · Elo 1,541
Resonac Dome Oita Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oita Trinita win
Oita Trinita winPick
45.6%
Draw
26.6%
Tochigi City win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Oita Trinita history68 matches
Tochigi City history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Oita Trinita are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tochigi City are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,458. On rating alone Tochigi City would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Tochigi City score far more

    0.99 goals a game over 68 matches for Oita Trinita, against 1.67 over 64 for Tochigi City.

  • Defences are close

    Oita Trinita concede 1.13 a game, Tochigi City 1.23.

  • Tochigi City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Oita Trinita matches, against 59% for Tochigi City. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oita Trinita
Tochigi City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.3
ELO
1541.1
68
ELO · Matches
64
1458.3
Current Team ELO
1541.1
1541.1
Current Opponent ELO
1458.3
-82.83
Current ELO Difference
82.83
0.38
Expected score
0.62
68
History Matches
64
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
47.94
Overperformance
52.24
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
64
1.15
PPG
1.70
27.9%
Win rate
50.0%
30.9%
Draw rate
20.3%
41.2%
Loss rate
29.7%
60.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
19.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
32
1.31
PPG
1.50
34.3%
Win rate
43.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.8%
37.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
35
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.99
Goals for per game
1.67
61.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
36.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.56
65.7%
Scoring rate
65.6%
37.1%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.43
65.2%
Scoring rate
69.6%
34.8%
BTTS rate
56.5%
68
History Matches
64
0.99
Goals Mean
1.67
1.02
Goals Std
1.43
61.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.6%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.23
60.3%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.34
54.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
52.2%
Conceding rate
78.3%
68
History Matches
64
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.12
Conceded Std
1.22
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.94
1.29
Stability score
6.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
63
15
Lead Matches
17
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.96
25
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.79
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.26
PPG
1.26
34.8%
Win rate
34.8%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
43.5%
Loss rate
43.5%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.26
Current Competition PPG
1.26
0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.26
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.77
49.65
Portability Score
56.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-82.83
PPG-0.56
GF-0.69
GA-0.10
PPG0.00
PPG-0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-4.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.39
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-6.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-82.83
Current Opponent ELO82.83
Current ELO Difference-165.7
Expected score-0.23
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oita Trinita

L
Blaublitz Akita2–1Oita Trinita7 Nov · away
Pick: Blaublitz Akita 44% · hit
W
Oita Trinita1–0Vanraure Hachinohe3 Nov · home
Pick: Oita Trinita 45% · hit
L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0Oita Trinita31 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
D
Oita Trinita1–1Ventforet Kofu25 Oct · home
Pick: Oita Trinita 42% · missed
D
Jubilo Iwata0–0Oita Trinita21 Oct · away
Pick: Jubilo Iwata 42% · missed

Tochigi City

L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki3–0Tochigi City3 Nov · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
L
Tochigi City1–3Iwaki31 Oct · home
Pick: Tochigi City 41% · missed
L
Shonan Bellmare2–1Tochigi City25 Oct · away
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 51% · hit
D
Tochigi City2–2Fujieda MYFC21 Oct · home
Pick: Tochigi City 39% · missed
D
Tochigi City1–1Yokohama FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Yokohama FC 40% · missed

About this match

Oita Trinita and Tochigi City meet in J2 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Resonac Dome Oita. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Oita Trinita win 45.6%, draw 26.6%, Tochigi City win 27.8%. The pick is Oita Trinita win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.