Shonan Bellmare vs Yokohama FC
Match result probability Model pick: Yokohama FC win
Shonan Bellmare win
33.5%
Draw
29.4%
Yokohama FC winPick
37.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.3%
No50.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%
How much we know
Shonan Bellmare history72 matches
Yokohama FC history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Yokohama FC
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 04:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Yokohama FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,501 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.11 goals a game over 72 matches for Shonan Bellmare, against 1.17 over 75 for Yokohama FC.
-
Defences are close
Shonan Bellmare concede 1.31 a game, Yokohama FC 1.27.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
40% of Shonan Bellmare matches, against 47% for Yokohama FC. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yokohama FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1501.1
ELO
1523.1
72
ELO · Matches
75
1501.1
Current Team ELO
1523.1
1523.1
Current Opponent ELO
1501.1
-22.03
Current ELO Difference
22.03
0.47
Expected score
0.53
72
History Matches
75
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.00
Overperformance
51.75
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.39
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals 90
72
Matches
75
1.24
PPG
1.25
33.3%
Win rate
36.0%
23.6%
Draw rate
17.3%
43.1%
Loss rate
46.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
36
1.37
PPG
1.03
37.1%
Win rate
27.8%
25.7%
Draw rate
19.4%
37.1%
Loss rate
52.8%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.17
69.4%
Scoring rate
68.0%
48.6%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.03
77.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.83
82.6%
Scoring rate
82.6%
52.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
72
History Matches
75
1.11
Goals Mean
1.17
1.11
Goals Std
1.15
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
23.6%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.27
73.6%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.39
71.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.39
65.2%
Conceding rate
78.3%
72
History Matches
75
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.17
Conceded Std
1.05
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
72
History Matches
75
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.64
2.62
Stability score
6.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
70
Eligible Matches
74
18
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.83
24
Trailing Matches
17
29.2%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.79
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
44
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
23
Matches
23
1.57
PPG
1.70
43.5%
Win rate
52.2%
26.1%
Draw rate
13.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
34.8%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.57
Current Competition PPG
1.70
0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.77
53.96
Portability Score
60.78
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
72
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-22.03
PPG-0.02
GF-0.06
GA0.04
PPG-0.13
PPG0.34
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-3.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.13
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-6.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-22.03
Current Opponent ELO22.03
Current ELO Difference-44.05
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Shonan Bellmare
L
Shonan Bellmare0–1Sagan Tosu3 Nov · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 44% · missed L
Consadole Sapporo1–0Shonan Bellmare31 Oct · away
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 41% · hit W
Shonan Bellmare2–1Tochigi City25 Oct · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 51% · hit D
Shonan Bellmare1–1Iwaki21 Oct · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 45% · missed D
Kataller Toyama1–1Shonan Bellmare17 Oct · away
Pick: Kataller Toyama 51% · missed Yokohama FC
W
Yokohama FC4–0Fujieda MYFC7 Nov · home
Pick: Yokohama FC 49% · hit W
Yokohama FC2–1Blaublitz Akita3 Nov · home
Pick: Yokohama FC 49% · hit W
Tokushima Vortis0–1Yokohama FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 44% · missed D
Omiya Ardija2–2Yokohama FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija 44% · missed W
Ventforet Kofu0–3Yokohama FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Yokohama FC 42% · hit About this match
Shonan Bellmare and Yokohama FC meet in J2 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Lemon Gas Stadium, Hiratsuka. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Shonan Bellmare win 33.5%, draw 29.4%, Yokohama FC win 37.1%. The pick is Yokohama FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.