ScoreProb
Liga Panameña de Fútbol Panama Round 15 2026

Alianza FC vs CD Arabe Unido

Alianza FC Home · Elo 1,555
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CD Arabe Unido Away · Elo 1,501
Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza FC win
Alianza FC winPick
53.8%
Draw
24.4%
CD Arabe Unido win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Alianza FC history52 matches
CD Arabe Unido history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 18 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Alianza FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alianza FC are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,501. On rating alone Alianza FC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Alianza FC score more

    1.40 goals a game over 52 matches for Alianza FC, against 1.07 over 45 for CD Arabe Unido.

  • CD Arabe Unido concede fewer

    Alianza FC concede 1.29 a game, CD Arabe Unido 1.11.

  • Alianza FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Alianza FC matches, against 38% for CD Arabe Unido. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza FC
CD Arabe Unido@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.7
ELO
1501.0
52
ELO · Matches
45
1554.7
Current Team ELO
1501.0
1501.0
Current Opponent ELO
1554.7
53.65
Current ELO Difference
-53.65
0.58
Expected score
0.42
52
History Matches
45
0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
54.29
Overperformance
50.57
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
45
1.52
PPG
1.31
38.5%
Win rate
35.6%
36.5%
Draw rate
24.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
57.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
21
1.50
PPG
1.10
39.3%
Win rate
28.6%
32.1%
Draw rate
23.8%
28.6%
Loss rate
47.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
28
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.07
78.8%
Scoring rate
71.1%
63.5%
BTTS rate
42.2%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.90
78.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.89
77.3%
Scoring rate
63.2%
63.6%
BTTS rate
31.6%
52
History Matches
45
1.40
Goals Mean
1.07
1.06
Goals Std
0.90
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
44.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
4.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.11
75.0%
Conceding rate
64.4%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.21
68.2%
Conceding rate
63.2%
52
History Matches
45
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.01
Conceded Std
1.12
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.07
Goal Difference Std
1.46
1.52
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
45
16
Lead Matches
12
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.02
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
24
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
19
1.55
PPG
1.21
31.8%
Win rate
31.6%
59.1%
Draw rate
26.3%
9.1%
Loss rate
42.1%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
47.4%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
0.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
22
Current Competition Matches
19
1.55
Current Competition PPG
1.21
0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.32
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.56
Portability PPG Range
0.17
65.83
Portability Score
85.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.65
PPG0.21
GF0.34
GA0.18
PPG0.33
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate15.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score-0.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.59
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-19.34
Rest days-2.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO53.65
Current Opponent ELO-53.65
Current ELO Difference107.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alianza FC

L
Alianza FC1–3Sporting San Miguelito25 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza FC 42% · missed
L
Herrera1–0Alianza FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza FC 58% · missed
D
Union Cocle2–2Alianza FC30 Aug · away
Pick: Union Cocle 39% · missed
W
Alianza FC2–0Tauro FC25 Aug · home
Pick: Alianza FC 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CD Arabe Unido

D
CD Arabe Unido1–1UMECIT24 Oct · home
Pick: CD Arabe Unido 43% · missed
D
Independiente de La Chorrera1–1CD Arabe Unido4 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 49% · missed
D
Deportivo Universitario0–0CD Arabe Unido29 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Universitario 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alianza FC and CD Arabe Unido meet in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Alianza FC win 53.8%, draw 24.4%, CD Arabe Unido win 21.8%. The pick is Alianza FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.