ScoreProb
Liga Panameña de Fútbol Panama Round 15 2026

Plaza Amador vs Sporting San Miguelito

Plaza Amador Home · Elo 1,647
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting San Miguelito Away · Elo 1,550
Estadio Maracana, Panama City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Plaza Amador win
Plaza Amador winPick
54.1%
Draw
23.8%
Sporting San Miguelito win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Plaza Amador history64 matches
Sporting San Miguelito history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 18 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Plaza Amador are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Plaza Amador are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,647 against 1,550. On rating alone Plaza Amador would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Plaza Amador score far more

    2.06 goals a game over 64 matches for Plaza Amador, against 1.16 over 45 for Sporting San Miguelito.

  • Sporting San Miguelito concede fewer

    Plaza Amador concede 1.22 a game, Sporting San Miguelito 1.07.

  • Plaza Amador games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Plaza Amador matches, against 36% for Sporting San Miguelito. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Plaza Amador
Sporting San Miguelito@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1647.0
ELO
1549.9
64
ELO · Matches
45
1647.0
Current Team ELO
1549.9
1549.9
Current Opponent ELO
1647.0
97.17
Current ELO Difference
-97.17
0.64
Expected score
0.36
64
History Matches
45
0.12
Residual Mean
0.05
58.83
Overperformance
53.15
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.00
3.40
Goals for per game
0.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
2.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
45
2.06
PPG
1.49
60.9%
Win rate
37.8%
23.4%
Draw rate
35.6%
15.6%
Loss rate
26.7%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.6%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
25
2.00
PPG
1.28
58.8%
Win rate
28.0%
23.5%
Draw rate
44.0%
17.6%
Loss rate
28.0%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
34
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
1.16
85.9%
Scoring rate
68.9%
54.7%
BTTS rate
42.2%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.12
85.3%
Scoring rate
64.0%
55.9%
BTTS rate
48.0%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.13
85.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
40.0%
64
History Matches
45
2.06
Goals Mean
1.16
1.43
Goals Std
0.97
85.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
64.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
34.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.07
67.2%
Conceding rate
62.2%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.32
70.6%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
0.87
66.7%
Conceding rate
53.3%
64
History Matches
45
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.08
Conceded Std
1.10
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
14.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
14.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
45
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.44
15.17
Stability score
0.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
45
26
Lead Matches
16
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
8
64.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.09
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
39
Normal Rest History Matches
22
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
15
2.00
PPG
1.47
57.1%
Win rate
33.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
46.7%
14.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
21
Current Competition Matches
15
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.47
0.90
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.27
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.43
89.09
Portability Score
72.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO97.17
PPG0.57
GF0.91
GA0.15
PPG0.53
PPG0.72
PPG2.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate17.0%
Scored 2+ rate26.3%
Scored 3+ rate25.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches19
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score14.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate23.6%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate39.3%
Trailing Win Rate21.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches6
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.64
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score17.01
Rest days-1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO97.17
Current Opponent ELO-97.17
Current ELO Difference194.3
Expected score0.27
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Plaza Amador

W
Plaza Amador2–1Deportivo Universitario4 Oct · home
Pick: Plaza Amador 72% · hit
L
San Francisco FC4–1Plaza Amador30 Aug · away
Pick: Plaza Amador 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sporting San Miguelito

W
Alianza FC1–3Sporting San Miguelito25 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza FC 42% · missed
L
Sporting San Miguelito0–2Tauro FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 52% · missed
W
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Union Cocle6 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 48% · hit
W
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Herrera30 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Plaza Amador and Sporting San Miguelito meet in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Maracana, Panama City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Plaza Amador win 54.1%, draw 23.8%, Sporting San Miguelito win 22.1%. The pick is Plaza Amador win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.