Sporting San Miguelito vs CD Arabe Unido
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting San Miguelito win
Sporting San Miguelito winPick
50.1%
Draw
28.6%
CD Arabe Unido win
21.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes44.9%
No55.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%
How much we know
Sporting San Miguelito history45 matches
CD Arabe Unido history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Sporting San Miguelito are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sporting San Miguelito are rated 49 Elo points higher
Elo 1,550 against 1,501. On rating alone Sporting San Miguelito would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.16 goals a game over 45 matches for Sporting San Miguelito, against 1.07 over 45 for CD Arabe Unido.
-
Defences are close
Sporting San Miguelito concede 1.07 a game, CD Arabe Unido 1.11.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
36% of Sporting San Miguelito matches, against 38% for CD Arabe Unido. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CD Arabe Unido@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1549.9
ELO
1501.0
45
ELO · Matches
45
1549.9
Current Team ELO
1501.0
1501.0
Current Opponent ELO
1549.9
48.85
Current ELO Difference
-48.85
0.57
Expected score
0.43
45
History Matches
45
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.15
Overperformance
50.57
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
45
1.49
PPG
1.31
37.8%
Win rate
35.6%
35.6%
Draw rate
24.4%
26.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.8%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
21
1.75
PPG
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
28.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.6%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.07
68.9%
Scoring rate
71.1%
42.2%
BTTS rate
42.2%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
35.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
0.89
66.7%
Scoring rate
63.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
31.6%
45
History Matches
45
1.16
Goals Mean
1.07
0.97
Goals Std
0.90
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
4.4%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.11
62.2%
Conceding rate
64.4%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.14
55.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.21
53.3%
Conceding rate
63.2%
45
History Matches
45
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.10
Conceded Std
1.12
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
45
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.98
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
45
16
Lead Matches
12
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.89
8
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.98
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
18
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals 170
15
Matches
19
1.47
PPG
1.21
33.3%
Win rate
31.6%
46.7%
Draw rate
26.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
47.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
15
Current Competition Matches
19
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.21
0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.32
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.17
72.08
Portability Score
85.17
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO48.85
PPG0.18
GF0.09
GA-0.04
PPG0.26
PPG0.65
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate8.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-0.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate6.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.58
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-13.09
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO48.85
Current Opponent ELO-48.85
Current ELO Difference97.70
Expected score0.14
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sporting San Miguelito
W
Alianza FC1–3Sporting San Miguelito25 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza FC 42% · missed L
Sporting San Miguelito0–2Tauro FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 52% · missed W
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Union Cocle6 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 48% · hit W
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Herrera30 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 70% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
CD Arabe Unido
D
CD Arabe Unido1–1UMECIT24 Oct · home
Pick: CD Arabe Unido 43% · missed D
Independiente de La Chorrera1–1CD Arabe Unido4 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 49% · missed D
Deportivo Universitario0–0CD Arabe Unido29 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Universitario 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sporting San Miguelito and CD Arabe Unido were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.