Herrera vs Independiente de La Chorrera
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente de La Chorrera win
Herrera win
22.3%
Draw
25.1%
Independiente de La Chorrera winPick
52.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.2%
No49.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%
How much we know
Herrera history48 matches
Independiente de La Chorrera history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Independiente de La Chorrera
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 13 h ahead4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Independiente de La Chorrera are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Independiente de La Chorrera are rated 133 Elo points higher
Elo 1,513 against 1,380. On rating alone Independiente de La Chorrera would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Independiente de La Chorrera score far more
0.83 goals a game over 48 matches for Herrera, against 1.29 over 38 for Independiente de La Chorrera.
-
Independiente de La Chorrera concede fewer
Herrera concede 1.67 a game, Independiente de La Chorrera 1.16.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Herrera matches, against 50% for Independiente de La Chorrera. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Independiente de La Chorrera@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1379.6
ELO
1512.9
48
ELO · Matches
38
1379.6
Current Team ELO
1512.9
1512.9
Current Opponent ELO
1379.6
-133.2
Current ELO Difference
133.2
0.32
Expected score
0.68
48
History Matches
38
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.01
41.91
Overperformance
50.72
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
38
0.71
PPG
1.34
12.5%
Win rate
28.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
47.4%
54.2%
Loss rate
23.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
20
0.92
PPG
1.05
23.1%
Win rate
25.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
30.0%
53.8%
Loss rate
45.0%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
26
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.83
Goals for per game
1.29
54.2%
Scoring rate
65.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.7%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.15
57.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.81
Goals for per game
1.47
57.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
52.4%
BTTS rate
47.1%
48
History Matches
38
0.83
Goals Mean
1.29
0.90
Goals Std
1.21
54.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.8%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
4.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.16
83.3%
Conceding rate
57.9%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.50
84.6%
Conceding rate
70.0%
2.05
Goals against per game
1.00
85.7%
Conceding rate
58.8%
48
History Matches
38
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.39
Conceded Std
1.20
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
38
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.72
12.78
Stability score
4.07
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
38
4
Lead Matches
14
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.74
20
Trailing Matches
9
35.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.28
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.00
Rest days
76.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
17
0.62
PPG
1.41
9.5%
Win rate
29.4%
33.3%
Draw rate
52.9%
57.1%
Loss rate
17.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
21
Current Competition Matches
17
0.62
Current Competition PPG
1.41
-1.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.47
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.41
86.30
Portability Score
73.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-133.2
PPG-0.63
GF-0.46
GA0.51
PPG-0.79
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate12.3%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score8.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG-0.79
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.71
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score12.61
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-133.2
Current Opponent ELO133.2
Current ELO Difference-266.5
Expected score-0.37
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Herrera
L
Herrera1–3San Francisco FC25 Oct · home
Pick: San Francisco FC 48% · hit W
Herrera1–0Alianza FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza FC 58% · missed L
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Herrera30 Aug · away
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 70% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Independiente de La Chorrera
W
Deportivo Universitario0–1Independiente de La Chorrera24 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 44% · hit D
Independiente de La Chorrera1–1CD Arabe Unido4 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 49% · missed L
Tauro FC2–1Independiente de La Chorrera29 Aug · away
Pick: Tauro FC 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Herrera and Independiente de La Chorrera meet in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Los Milagros, Chitre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Herrera win 22.3%, draw 25.1%, Independiente de La Chorrera win 52.6%. The pick is Independiente de La Chorrera win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.