ScoreProb
Liga Panameña de Fútbol Panama Round 15 2026

UMECIT vs Tauro FC

UMECIT Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tauro FC Away · Elo 1,448
Estadio Futuras Promesas, Panama City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: UMECIT win
UMECIT winPick
47.5%
Draw
26.1%
Tauro FC win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

UMECIT history45 matches
Tauro FC history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 18 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why UMECIT are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,472 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 45 matches for UMECIT, against 1.20 over 45 for Tauro FC.

  • Defences are close

    UMECIT concede 1.31 a game, Tauro FC 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of UMECIT matches, against 44% for Tauro FC. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UMECIT
Tauro FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.9
ELO
1447.9
45
ELO · Matches
45
1471.9
Current Team ELO
1447.9
1447.9
Current Opponent ELO
1471.9
23.98
Current ELO Difference
-23.98
0.53
Expected score
0.47
45
History Matches
45
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.05
Overperformance
45.98
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.40
0.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.60
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
45
1.13
PPG
1.00
24.4%
Win rate
22.2%
40.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.6%
Loss rate
44.4%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.48
PPG
0.78
39.1%
Win rate
17.4%
30.4%
Draw rate
26.1%
30.4%
Loss rate
56.5%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.20
73.3%
Scoring rate
68.9%
55.6%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.22
78.3%
Scoring rate
69.6%
52.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.20
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
45
History Matches
45
1.09
Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Goals Std
1.13
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
24.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.38
75.6%
Conceding rate
75.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.78
69.6%
Conceding rate
87.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
45
History Matches
45
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.96
Conceded Std
1.20
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.54
1.83
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
45
5
Lead Matches
9
20.0%
Lead Win Rate
44.4%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.52
13
Trailing Matches
15
46.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.09
Rest days
74.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.10
PPG
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
35.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.10
Current Competition PPG
1.10
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.09
1.32
Portability PPG Range
0.18
46.43
Portability Score
84.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.98
PPG0.13
GF-0.11
GA-0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-1.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate12.8%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-38.32
Rest days1.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO23.98
Current Opponent ELO-23.98
Current ELO Difference47.96
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UMECIT

D
CD Arabe Unido1–1UMECIT24 Oct · away
Pick: CD Arabe Unido 43% · missed
D
UMECIT1–1Veraguas1 Sep · home
Pick: UMECIT 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tauro FC

W
Sporting San Miguelito0–2Tauro FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 52% · missed
W
Tauro FC2–1Independiente de La Chorrera29 Aug · home
Pick: Tauro FC 37% · hit
L
Alianza FC2–0Tauro FC25 Aug · away
Pick: Alianza FC 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

UMECIT and Tauro FC meet in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Futuras Promesas, Panama City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: UMECIT win 47.5%, draw 26.1%, Tauro FC win 26.4%. The pick is UMECIT win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.