ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Almere City II vs Kozakken Boys

Almere City II Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kozakken Boys Away · Elo 1,519
Yanmar Stadion, Almere Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Almere City II win
Almere City II winPick
51.3%
Draw
20.8%
Kozakken Boys win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.2%
No35.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.0%
Under 2.529.0%

How much we know

Almere City II history53 matches
Kozakken Boys history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Almere City II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Almere City II are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,519. On rating alone Almere City II would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Almere City II score far more

    2.55 goals a game over 53 matches for Almere City II, against 1.62 over 60 for Kozakken Boys.

  • Kozakken Boys concede fewer

    Almere City II concede 1.66 a game, Kozakken Boys 1.35.

  • Almere City II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    87% of Almere City II matches, against 57% for Kozakken Boys. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Almere City II
Kozakken Boys
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.4
ELO
1519.3
53
ELO · Matches
60
1551.4
Current Team ELO
1519.3
1519.3
Current Opponent ELO
1551.4
32.11
Current ELO Difference
-32.11
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
60
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.79
Overperformance
51.38
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
60
1.75
PPG
1.50
54.7%
Win rate
41.7%
11.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
94.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
86.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
58.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
29
2.08
PPG
1.52
66.7%
Win rate
41.4%
8.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
95.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
24
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.55
Goals for per game
1.62
88.7%
Scoring rate
81.7%
64.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.88
Goals for per game
1.48
100.0%
Scoring rate
82.8%
79.2%
BTTS rate
62.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
60
2.55
Goals Mean
1.62
1.70
Goals Std
1.40
88.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.7%
66.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
50.9%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
2.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.35
73.6%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.34
79.2%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
60
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.36
Conceded Std
1.18
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
60
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
2.38
Goal Difference Std
1.83
14.13
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
59
22
Lead Matches
17
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.84
13
Trailing Matches
18
15.4%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.96
Portability PPG Range
0.74
56.07
Portability Score
62.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.11
PPG0.25
GF0.93
GA0.31
PPG1.00
PPG0.57
PPG1.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.93
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate7.0%
Scored 2+ rate26.0%
Scored 3+ rate27.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score12.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.06
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate4.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-6.48
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO32.11
Current Opponent ELO-32.11
Current ELO Difference64.23
Expected score0.09
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Almere City II

W
AFC Amsterdam0–1Almere City II24 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City II 50% · hit
L
Almere City II2–3De Treffers17 Oct · home
Pick: De Treffers 52% · hit
L
Almere City II1–2Koninklijke HFC29 Aug · home
Pick: Almere City II 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kozakken Boys

L
Kozakken Boys0–1Utrecht29 Oct · home
Pick: Utrecht 44% · hit
L
Kozakken Boys0–1Barendrecht24 Oct · home
Pick: Kozakken Boys 54% · missed
D
Hoek0–0Kozakken Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Hoek 51% · missed
W
Kozakken Boys3–2GVVV Veenendaal29 Aug · home
Pick: Kozakken Boys 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Almere City II and Kozakken Boys meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Yanmar Stadion, Almere. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Almere City II win 51.3%, draw 20.8%, Kozakken Boys win 28.0%. The pick is Almere City II win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.0%. Both teams to score: 64.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.