ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Sparta Rotterdam II vs AFC Amsterdam

Sparta Rotterdam II Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Amsterdam Away · Elo 1,525
Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sparta Rotterdam II win
Sparta Rotterdam II winPick
62.2%
Draw
17.4%
AFC Amsterdam win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.1%
No33.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.7%
Under 2.526.3%

How much we know

Sparta Rotterdam II history60 matches
AFC Amsterdam history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sparta Rotterdam II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sparta Rotterdam II score more

    2.28 goals a game over 60 matches for Sparta Rotterdam II, against 1.57 over 54 for AFC Amsterdam.

  • AFC Amsterdam concede fewer

    Sparta Rotterdam II concede 2.05 a game, AFC Amsterdam 1.54.

  • Sparta Rotterdam II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Sparta Rotterdam II matches, against 61% for AFC Amsterdam. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Rotterdam II
AFC Amsterdam
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.8
ELO
1525.0
60
ELO · Matches
54
1516.8
Current Team ELO
1525.0
1525.0
Current Opponent ELO
1516.8
-8.17
Current ELO Difference
8.17
0.49
Expected score
0.51
60
History Matches
54
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
51.11
Overperformance
51.65
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
3.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
2.40
Goals for per game
1.70
2.40
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
54
1.35
PPG
1.50
36.7%
Win rate
42.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
38.3%
Loss rate
35.2%
96.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
63.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
27
1.47
PPG
1.41
40.0%
Win rate
40.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
86.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
76.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.28
Goals for per game
1.57
90.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
76.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.57
Goals for per game
1.59
96.7%
Scoring rate
88.9%
80.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
6.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
54
2.28
Goals Mean
1.57
1.70
Goals Std
0.93
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
36.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
2.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.05
Goals against per game
1.54
85.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.56
83.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
54
2.05
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.45
Conceded Std
1.24
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.1%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
2.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.53
Goal Difference Std
1.70
1.51
Stability score
3.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
54
24
Lead Matches
13
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.92
22
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.06
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.68
56.66
Portability Score
59.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.17
PPG-0.15
GF0.71
GA0.51
PPG1.50
PPG0.06
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.77
Scored 1+ rate1.1%
Scored 2+ rate11.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.90
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate19.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.83
Stability score-1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-2.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-8.17
Current Opponent ELO8.17
Current ELO Difference-16.33
Expected score-0.02
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Rotterdam II

D
De Treffers3–3Sparta Rotterdam II24 Oct · away
Pick: De Treffers 54% · missed
L
RKAV Volendam2–1Sparta Rotterdam II17 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 54% · missed
L
Sparta Rotterdam II1–3HHC29 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

AFC Amsterdam

L
AFC Amsterdam0–1Almere City II24 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City II 50% · hit
L
Barendrecht4–1AFC Amsterdam17 Oct · away
Pick: Barendrecht 42% · hit
W
Be Quick 18870–2AFC Amsterdam1 Sep · away
Pick: AFC Amsterdam 40% · hit
W
AFC Amsterdam2–0ROHDA Raalte29 Aug · home
Pick: AFC Amsterdam 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sparta Rotterdam II and AFC Amsterdam meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sparta Rotterdam II win 62.2%, draw 17.4%, AFC Amsterdam win 20.4%. The pick is Sparta Rotterdam II win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.7%. Both teams to score: 66.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.