ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Koninklijke HFC vs ROHDA Raalte

Koninklijke HFC Home · Elo 1,451
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ROHDA Raalte Away · Elo 1,524
Sportpark Spanjaardslaan, Haarlem Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Koninklijke HFC win
Koninklijke HFC winPick
58.2%
Draw
17.7%
ROHDA Raalte win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Koninklijke HFC history54 matches
ROHDA Raalte history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Koninklijke HFC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ROHDA Raalte are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,451. On rating alone ROHDA Raalte would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • ROHDA Raalte score more

    1.13 goals a game over 54 matches for Koninklijke HFC, against 1.60 over 52 for ROHDA Raalte.

  • Defences are close

    Koninklijke HFC concede 1.37 a game, ROHDA Raalte 1.52.

  • ROHDA Raalte games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Koninklijke HFC matches, against 65% for ROHDA Raalte. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Koninklijke HFC
ROHDA Raalte
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.8
ELO
1524.4
54
ELO · Matches
52
1450.8
Current Team ELO
1524.4
1524.4
Current Opponent ELO
1450.8
-73.58
Current ELO Difference
73.58
0.40
Expected score
0.60
54
History Matches
52
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
46.73
Overperformance
52.08
-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
52
1.24
PPG
1.60
37.0%
Win rate
46.2%
13.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
32.7%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
1.93
PPG
1.38
59.3%
Win rate
41.7%
14.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
25.9%
Loss rate
45.8%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.60
61.1%
Scoring rate
82.7%
42.6%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.21
77.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.13
Goals Mean
1.60
1.20
Goals Std
1.15
61.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.7%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.52
74.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.50
59.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
4.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.11
Conceded Std
1.46
42.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
52
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.83
10.86
Stability score
4.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
14
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
11
10.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.57
Portability PPG Range
1.01
63.81
Portability Score
49.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-73.58
PPG-0.36
GF-0.47
GA-0.15
PPG0.00
PPG0.55
PPG0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate21.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score6.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score14.08
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-73.58
Current Opponent ELO73.58
Current ELO Difference-147.2
Expected score-0.21
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Koninklijke HFC

L
Koninklijke HFC0–5GO Ahead Eagles27 Oct · home
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 50% · hit
L
GVVV Veenendaal2–0Koninklijke HFC24 Oct · away
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 43% · hit
W
Koninklijke HFC2–1Kloetinge17 Oct · home
Pick: Kloetinge 54% · missed
W
LONGA '300–4Koninklijke HFC1 Sep · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
W
Almere City II1–2Koninklijke HFC29 Aug · away
Pick: Almere City II 62% · missed

ROHDA Raalte

L
RKAV Volendam3–0ROHDA Raalte29 Oct · away
Pick: RKAV Volendam 50% · hit
L
ROHDA Raalte0–1HHC24 Oct · home
Pick: HHC 53% · hit
L
Rijnsburgse Boys1–0ROHDA Raalte17 Oct · away
Pick: Rijnsburgse Boys 56% · hit
L
AFC Amsterdam2–0ROHDA Raalte29 Aug · away
Pick: AFC Amsterdam 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Koninklijke HFC and ROHDA Raalte meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Spanjaardslaan, Haarlem. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Koninklijke HFC win 58.2%, draw 17.7%, ROHDA Raalte win 24.1%. The pick is Koninklijke HFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.