ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Hoek vs Ijsselmeervogels

Hoek Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ijsselmeervogels Away · Elo 1,517
Sportpark Denoek, Hoek Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hoek win
Hoek winPick
51.7%
Draw
26.0%
Ijsselmeervogels win
22.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Hoek history58 matches
Ijsselmeervogels history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hoek are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hoek are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,517. On rating alone Hoek would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.97 goals a game over 58 matches for Hoek, against 2.10 over 59 for Ijsselmeervogels.

  • Hoek concede fewer

    Hoek concede 1.07 a game, Ijsselmeervogels 1.61.

  • Ijsselmeervogels games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Hoek matches, against 73% for Ijsselmeervogels. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hoek
Ijsselmeervogels
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.2
ELO
1516.5
58
ELO · Matches
59
1588.2
Current Team ELO
1516.5
1516.5
Current Opponent ELO
1588.2
71.70
Current ELO Difference
-71.70
0.60
Expected score
0.40
58
History Matches
59
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
55.58
Overperformance
51.13
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
3.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.10
2.30
Goals for per game
2.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.98
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
59
1.93
PPG
1.51
56.9%
Win rate
45.8%
22.4%
Draw rate
13.6%
20.7%
Loss rate
40.7%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
60.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.9%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
2.03
PPG
1.41
60.0%
Win rate
41.4%
23.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
41.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
79.3%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.97
Goals for per game
2.10
89.7%
Scoring rate
76.3%
63.8%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.97
Goals for per game
2.07
90.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
56.7%
BTTS rate
58.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
59
1.97
Goals Mean
2.10
1.39
Goals Std
2.00
89.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
55.2%
Scored 2+ rate
61.0%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.5%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.61
69.0%
Conceding rate
74.6%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.66
60.0%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
59
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.00
Conceded Std
1.43
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.8%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
59
0.89
Result entropy
0.91
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.73
10.61
Stability score
9.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
59
14
Lead Matches
26
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.76
10
Trailing Matches
19
20.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.42
53.43
Portability Score
41.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO71.70
PPG0.42
GF-0.14
GA-0.54
PPG0.50
PPG0.62
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate13.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.71
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.96
Stability score1.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.64
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score12.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO71.70
Current Opponent ELO-71.70
Current ELO Difference143.4
Expected score0.20
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hoek

W
Hoek4–2Sparta Nijkerk29 Oct · home
Pick: Hoek 57% · hit
L
Quick Boys3–1Hoek24 Oct · away
Pick: Quick Boys 60% · hit
D
Hoek0–0Kozakken Boys17 Oct · home
Pick: Hoek 51% · missed
L
Hoek0–2Spakenburg29 Aug · home
Pick: Hoek 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ijsselmeervogels

W
Ijsselmeervogels2–1Spakenburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 42% · hit
W
Katwijk1–2Ijsselmeervogels17 Oct · away
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 39% · hit
D
Ijsselmeervogels1–1RKAV Volendam29 Aug · home
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hoek and Ijsselmeervogels meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Denoek, Hoek. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hoek win 51.7%, draw 26.0%, Ijsselmeervogels win 22.2%. The pick is Hoek win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.