AmaZulu U23 vs Mamelodi Sundowns U23
Match result probability Model pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win
AmaZulu U23 win
27.1%
Draw
19.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 winPick
53.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
How much we know
AmaZulu U23 history42 matches
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Mamelodi Sundowns U23
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Mamelodi Sundowns U23 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 are rated 170 Elo points higher
Elo 1,638 against 1,469. On rating alone Mamelodi Sundowns U23 would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.
-
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 score far more
1.33 goals a game over 42 matches for AmaZulu U23, against 2.28 over 40 for Mamelodi Sundowns U23.
-
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 concede fewer
AmaZulu U23 concede 1.69 a game, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 0.95.
-
AmaZulu U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals
69% of AmaZulu U23 matches, against 55% for Mamelodi Sundowns U23. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mamelodi Sundowns U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1468.6
ELO
1638.4
42
ELO · Matches
40
1468.6
Current Team ELO
1638.4
1638.4
Current Opponent ELO
1468.6
-169.7
Current ELO Difference
169.7
0.27
Expected score
0.73
42
History Matches
40
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.16
47.46
Overperformance
60.98
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.70
1.10
Goals for per game
2.90
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
42
Matches
40
1.31
PPG
2.28
38.1%
Win rate
72.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
10.0%
45.2%
Loss rate
17.5%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
69.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
21
1.19
PPG
2.14
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
19.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
47.6%
Loss rate
19.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
2.28
71.4%
Scoring rate
87.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.19
Goals for per game
2.24
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
47.6%
BTTS rate
61.9%
42
History Matches
40
1.33
Goals Mean
2.28
1.19
Goals Std
1.63
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
65.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
2.24
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.69
Goals against per game
0.95
83.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.00
85.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
42
History Matches
40
1.69
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.32
Conceded Std
1.07
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
42
History Matches
40
0.93
Result entropy
0.70
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.99
6.69
Stability score
30.05
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
36
Eligible Matches
37
11
Lead Matches
21
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
95.2%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.95
12
Trailing Matches
5
8.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.54
17
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.15
84.85
Portability Score
86.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
42
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-169.7
PPG-0.97
GF-0.94
GA0.74
PPG-0.95
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate16.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.94
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.74
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate18.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.63
History Matches2
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-23.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-1.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-169.7
Current Opponent ELO169.7
Current ELO Difference-339.5
Expected score-0.45
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-13.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
AmaZulu U23
L
Kaizer Chiefs U233–1AmaZulu U237 Nov · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs U23 60% · hit L
AmaZulu U230–1Siwelele U2324 Oct · home
Pick: AmaZulu U23 46% · missed L
Polokwane City U232–1AmaZulu U2317 Oct · away
Pick: AmaZulu U23 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Mamelodi Sundowns U23
D
Mamelodi Sundowns U231–1Polokwane City U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 67% · missed W
Mamelodi Sundowns U233–0Chippa United U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 82% · hit L
Kaizer Chiefs U234–2Mamelodi Sundowns U234 Oct · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs U23 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
AmaZulu U23 and Mamelodi Sundowns U23 meet in Diski Challenge on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: AmaZulu U23 win 27.1%, draw 19.4%, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win 53.6%. The pick is Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.