ScoreProb
Central Youth League Poland Round 14 2026

Arka Gdynia U19 vs Wisła Kraków U19

Arka Gdynia U19 Home · Elo 1,499
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wisła Kraków U19 Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wisła Kraków U19 win
Arka Gdynia U19 win
36.8%
Draw
25.4%
Wisła Kraków U19 winPick
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.6%
No34.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Arka Gdynia U19 history16 matches
Wisła Kraków U19 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Wisła Kraków U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,499 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 16 matches for Arka Gdynia U19, against 1.81 over 43 for Wisła Kraków U19.

  • Defences are close

    Arka Gdynia U19 concede 1.69 a game, Wisła Kraków U19 1.74.

  • Wisła Kraków U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Arka Gdynia U19 matches, against 79% for Wisła Kraków U19. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arka Gdynia U19
Wisła Kraków U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.8
ELO
1504.6
16
ELO · Matches
43
1498.8
Current Team ELO
1504.6
1504.6
Current Opponent ELO
1498.8
-5.84
Current ELO Difference
5.84
0.49
Expected score
0.51
16
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.83
Overperformance
50.53
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
43
1.38
PPG
1.44
37.5%
Win rate
44.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
11.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
44.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
79.1%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.8%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
21
1.25
PPG
1.81
37.5%
Win rate
57.1%
12.5%
Draw rate
9.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
8
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.81
87.5%
Scoring rate
86.0%
81.3%
BTTS rate
76.7%
1.63
Goals for per game
2.14
87.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
43
1.81
Goals Mean
1.81
1.18
Goals Std
1.32
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
55.8%
37.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
2.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.74
93.8%
Conceding rate
88.4%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.52
87.5%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
43
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.74
0.85
Conceded Std
1.14
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.8%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.2%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
43
0.99
Result entropy
0.88
1.36
Goal Difference Std
2.00
1.49
Stability score
11.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
34
1
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
7
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.96
73.58
Portability Score
52.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.84
PPG-0.07
GF0.00
GA-0.06
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.56
PPG-1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-27
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-27
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-27
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.64
Stability score-10.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score20.99
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-5.84
Current Opponent ELO5.84
Current ELO Difference-11.67
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-27
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arka Gdynia U19

L
Zagłębie Lubin U197–0Arka Gdynia U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin U19 48% · hit
W
Arka Gdynia U191–0Polonia Warszawa U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · hit
L
Arkonia U191–0Arka Gdynia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Arkonia U19 46% · hit
D
Arka Gdynia U192–2Jagiellonia U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wisła Kraków U19

D
Wisła Kraków U193–3Raków Częstochowa U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków U19 57% · missed
W
Śląsk Wrocław U191–2Wisła Kraków U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław U19 45% · missed
L
Wisła Kraków U193–4Legia Warszawa U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 55% · hit
D
Wisła Kraków U193–3Polonia Warszawa U197 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków U19 46% · missed
W
Wisła Kraków U194–0Talent Warszawa U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków U19 45% · hit

About this match

Arka Gdynia U19 and Wisła Kraków U19 meet in Central Youth League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Arka Gdynia U19 win 36.8%, draw 25.4%, Wisła Kraków U19 win 37.8%. The pick is Wisła Kraków U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 65.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.